Coronavirus

I received my Disney masks today. I ordered large because that's what the measurements said would fit me and I think I have an unusually big head. They are all a little big on me, so those of you who ordered large may be happy with what you get. They are very soft and all four are about the same size; we didn't end up with inconsistent sizing within the pack like I've read others have.
 

Anne

Well-known member
Orange county alone is over 1000 new confirmed cases just today, up from 700 yesterday. Double that number if you look at counties surrounding it.
Our state has had a significant resurgence this week too. The last 3 days our state and county have hit all-time daily record new cases and are at 9% positive rate on tests. Our hospitalization rates are not yet back to where they were at peak, but it takes 1-2 weeks for the positives to progress to hospitalization. I'm clinging to the hope that the demographic shift to younger folks being infected means hospitalization rates will not be as high. But the full ICUs in Arizona are not encouraging.
 

Not That Josh

Well-known member
Our hospitalization rates are not yet back to where they were at peak, but it takes 1-2 weeks for the positives to progress to hospitalization.
Unfortunately, the 1-2 weeks after that is when deaths show up. With that in mind, July could be a rough month for deaths. I guess we can hope that doesn't happen which would mean the virus is less deadly or treatments are working better, but that seems like an unrealistic hope.
 

Anne

Well-known member
Unfortunately, the 1-2 weeks after that is when deaths show up. With that in mind, July could be a rough month for deaths. I guess we can hope that doesn't happen which would mean the virus is less deadly or treatments are working better, but that seems like an unrealistic hope.
Sorry, I meant we see hospital/ICU census peaking a couple weeks after cases are bumping. They are such long admissions, the cases trickle in but don't get discharged quickly.

Lower death rates would not necessarily mean anything has changed about the virus itself or that it is weaker. We have a larger denominator now that testing is easier to get (in my hospital we initially could ONLY test those sick enough to be hospitalized, healthcare workers, and those in group living situations). And the demographic of those getting the virus appears to be younger/healthier as those at higher risk have been more vigilant about exposure.
 

Nia

Well-known member
That is interesting that you are experiencing similar mask-resistance as we are in the US. It is really unfortunate that those early messages are sticking with people and some are not able to adapt to new information and guidelines.

George is spot on that the importance of wearing a mask is to protect others. In my exposure I was wearing a mask but the person who was positive was not. That was what bumped my exposure into "high risk" on our exposure algorithm.

Good news my test was negative and I continue symptom-free!
People do know that the aim is to protect others but as the news are good - 11 new cases yesterday, about 2 in million population, people are getting bit too relaxed and feel the risk is gone. Restaurants, bars, gyms school and most shops even are still closed, we are just starting to reopen. Even some cancer screening is just resuming so prolonged lockdown comes with other health implications. If people do not wear mask and if they permit international travel too early we will be back to higher numbers in no time. There are plans to make masks in public transport mandatory now

I am glad you tested negative! Interesting to read the experience of people who are ahead of us reopening. It is also scary to be honest.
 
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George

wishes he had a pink frolicing llama under his tag
I'm still flummoxed about how Disney thinks it can open safely, especially in light of all the increases in cases. I suppose we're at the "yeah, there's a virus out there, but WE WANT MONEY" phase of our moral and ethical development. Never mind that other countries stayed the course and had their infection and death rate plunge dramatically.
 

DopeyRunr

the jeweled acrobats only perform amazing stunts f
I'm still flummoxed about how Disney thinks it can open safely, especially in light of all the increases in cases. I suppose we're at the "yeah, there's a virus out there, but WE WANT MONEY" phase of our moral and ethical development. Never mind that other countries stayed the course and had their infection and death rate plunge dramatically.
And with anecdotal reports at Disney Springs of conflict between mask resisters and CMs trying to enforce compliance, it's unlikely to be enjoyable or safe inside the parks for guests or employees. Other than locals whose annual passes are already paid for, where is the huge demand expected to come from?
 

Mrs Darling

Well-known member
I'm still flummoxed about how Disney thinks it can open safely, especially in light of all the increases in cases. I suppose we're at the "yeah, there's a virus out there, but WE WANT MONEY" phase of our moral and ethical development. Never mind that other countries stayed the course and had their infection and death rate plunge dramatically.
My DH is so disgusted that Disney isn't taking appropriate action to protect guests & cast members that he's reluctant to ever go back. I am deeply disappointed as well (although I can't fathom never being in my happy place again 😢). DL or Paris in 2022 might be an easier sell, but their choice to put $ over safety is concerning. I still hold out hope for an announcement delaying opening but we will see.
 

George

wishes he had a pink frolicing llama under his tag
My DH is so disgusted that Disney isn't taking appropriate action to protect guests & cast members that he's reluctant to ever go back. I am deeply disappointed as well (although I can't fathom never being in my happy place again 😢). DL or Paris in 2022 might be an easier sell, but their choice to put $ over safety is concerning. I still hold out hope for an announcement delaying opening but we will see.
Truly, that would be the right thing to do. The virus hasn't gotten bored and decided to let up a bit for the summer.
 

Not That Josh

Well-known member
Sorry, I meant we see hospital/ICU census peaking a couple weeks after cases are bumping. They are such long admissions, the cases trickle in but don't get discharged quickly.
You were clear, and I understood. The lack of clarity was on me (I need to stop posting when I'm tired). No need to go around in circles, you already know the point I was attempting to make. :RpS_smile:
 

Disneyfan

Well-known member
I hope everyone is safe and well!

I have been wondering about how cases are reported and thought I would come here to ask. You guys are always so helpful. Stats isn't my strong point. Forgive me if my questions don't make sense or are not worded appropriately.

For the most part, aren't cases just being reported as total raw numbers? If so, wouldn't it make sense to also report more widely on how many cases per capita? For example, the website link below is showing total cases per state per 100,000. Why can't this be done on a daily basis as well? Less populated states should have lower Covid rates. It would make sense that more populated states would have more cases. It just seems to me that the numbers we see on a daily basis only tell a small part of the story when population and even population density are not ever included from sources.



I am also wondering about slowly/quickly reopening. No matter how opening is handled, won't cases go up regardless? If a state opens slowly, the numbers slowly go up. If a state opens quickly, the numbers quickly go up. I have heard about keeping the numbers down by opening slowly. Is it even possible to keep the numbers down by slowly opening? If you open slowly but surely, won't there be a point where you have high numbers when everything becomes open?

I have a hard time wrapping my head around this whole situation.
 

paxsarah

Active member
This site is showing cases per 100,000 based on a 7-day average - so current conditions and based on population: https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/

(It was just featured on NPR this morning and I think the site was hit a little harder than it expected - I had problems with it this morning but it seems to be pretty responsive this afternoon.)

I think one of the benefits of opening slowly is that more restrictive measures can be reinstituted if trends start to go the wrong way - but you have to have a government that's willing to put those measures back in place. I also think it would have been possible after the initial extended closure to open slowly with (near) universal mask wearing and continued social distancing, and have kept the R number below 1 and the virus doesn't spiral out of control. Some states seem to be managing that, or are very close. But the states that have skyrocketing cases, I don't know how they (we - I live in GA) get back there without another closure.
 

Nia

Well-known member
slower reopening should mean easier contact tracing. There were 14 cases linked to one over the last week, 13 of them without any symptoms. All were very quickly tested (tested positive) and isolated as they have not been to so many places yet.
 

Mrs Darling

Well-known member
slower reopening should mean easier contact tracing. There were 14 cases linked to one over the last week, 13 of them without any symptoms. All were very quickly tested (tested positive) and isolated as they have not been to so many places yet.
This is exactly what the situation looks like in Canada right now. With the first wave over, a few cases continue to pop up but they are able to be isolated before things get out of control (so far.) With low numbers of positives this is possible, not nearly as effective as things surge. Picture playing whack-a-mole at low speed but as it speeds up it becomes nearly impossible to keep up.
Opening up slowly here also means no large gatherings to try to limit the "super spreader" risks. And no bars, very limited indoor dining.
The objective isn't so much zero cases (although that's the ideal), but few enough cases that the contact tracing will contain the spread.
 
My daughter just got the e-mail we've been expecting: Fall DCP is cancelled. She was going to withdraw anyway if it hadn't been cancelled, because she has more time and wants to do a "regular" program. It does give some insight into what Disney's forecasts may be for the fall.
 

DopeyRunr

the jeweled acrobats only perform amazing stunts f
I wonder how much of that is due to the unique aspect of Disney providing housing for DCP? On our college campus, they're considering making all dorm rooms single occupancy to limit potential spread of the virus. Not sure DCP could afford to do that...
 
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