Coronavirus

[Mrs Darling]

It is worrying how many people are shocked when I say that we will still be doing this through at least next summer. And we are talking about educated professionals. They are taken aback when I mention that a lot of silicon valley has already told its workforce to just plan on working from home until summer of 2021. I don't know if it is just wishful or what.

Don’t be too hard on those of us who aren’t there yet. I was much happier when we were told (early on) to expect to work from home for the rest of 2020. Though logically I can see it coming, right now I need the glimmer of hope that 2021 will be better. I’m sure many of us will be realizing how long the road is going to be in the coming months.

We’ve been lucky so far but the rates in Canada are creeping up now too & new restrictions are being considered or imposed. I’m happy to comply when I look at the death rates for jurisdictions that aren’t making the hard decisions. Though our restrictions are not as onerous as what was happening in March/April when testing was scarce and so much was unknown.

The number of deaths in central Florida yesterday exceeded all of Canada (7) & that makes me incredibly sad. If feeling silly in my mask, tipping generously while doing take out, shopping local & keeping my in person social circle small and/or outdoors is what it takes to get us back on track, so be it. Feeling like things are going backwards is not easy though. Hang tough all.

 

[bnoble]

Many of those are marginalized people who, in the great scheme of things, don't count. Can you imagine if the water crisis happened in Beverly Hills? Or in Bloomfield Hills, MI?

We talked about this around the dinner table back when it happened. How long do you think it would have taken to make the front page of NYT if that had happened in Ann Arbor instead of Flint? After all, Ann Arbor is one of maybe a dozen places in all of flyover country that people from the costs think about as a place that exists in the world.

 

[Anne]

I am a little more on the hopeful side for 2021. There is still the possibility of improvement prior to a vaccine with point of care testing.

The Plan That Could Give Us Our Lives Back

The U.S. has never had enough coronavirus tests. Now a group of epidemiologists, economists, and dreamers is plotting a new strategy to defeat the virus, even before a vaccine is found.

www.theatlantic.com

I don't see the current administration coming through with the manufacturing for this degree of testing. But maybe in 2021?

I don't expect the US being mask-free and back to undistanced or large group activities or international travel until fall 2021. But with vaccination starting, a universal mask policy, extensive point of care testing we could make a significant improvement in the things we can do. If we could get national leadership to bring us together.

 

[DopeyRunr]

a universal mask policy

I wish I could share your optimism, but I don't see any effort requiring a universal mask policy being successful. Compliance, already VERY far below universal, is only going to decline as the months drag on. Which keeps the diligent and cautious among us mostly at home until we know we're protected (through vaccination) from the idiots.

 

[Anne]

I wish I could share your optimism, but I don't see any effort requiring a universal mask policy being successful. Compliance, already VERY far below universal, is only going to decline as the months drag on. Which keeps the diligent and cautious among us mostly at home until we know we're protected (through vaccination) from the idiots.

It is frustrating to know we CAN save thousands of lives but are choosing not to. We have so many tools at our disposal now that aren't a lock-down and we're saying "no, I'm good with people dying who don't have to, I'll pass."

But the great thing about a universal mask mandate is that you don't need 100% compliance for improvement in R and as community prevalence decreases so does death and co-morbidity. Some of the models show significant improvement with 70-80% compliance. There was a survey, maybe a month back with 70-80% of Americans supporting a mask mandate (now who knows how representative a sample, but encouraging).

Our clinic has almost 100% mask compliance. Disney has high compliance overall. You can't enforce a mask mandate with monetary fines. But if people find they are completely blocked from venues who stick to policy, all but a few will wear masks where it matters the most, around others indoors. Will there be businesses that don't enforce? Absolutely. But it can be done if you want to make it a priority and we don't need 100% compliance to have improvement.

You do masks, you do increased testing, you start vaccinating the population and each thing chips away at transmission and subsequently prevalence.

That being said I'm not personally going to send my kids to in-person school with just a mask mandate. Vaccine, yes. POC testing every other day before entry to school (instead of the required temp check, here's a saliva test), plus masks, Id be comfortable with that even if we don't have a vaccine yet.

 

[George]

My concern is, regardless of the outcome of November's election, a great section of the population is either going to be acting the same, or, even worse, mad as hell and determined to use not wearing masks to show their rage - led by guess who.

 

[Nia]

Don’t be too hard on those of us who aren’t there yet. I was much happier when we were told (early on) to expect to work from home for the rest of 2020. Though logically I can see it coming, right now I need the glimmer of hope that 2021 will be better. I’m sure many of us will be realizing how long the road is going to be in the coming months.

To be fair, it's sobering to read the stats from Florida and read the views here. I didn't find the comments intended to be hard, I read them as they are more reality check. I see the numbers in Florida - 170 deaths for one day I can see where are they coming from. I can give out as much as I want but the fact it, fed up is better than dead

The news were so good short while ago. Weeks without deaths, 10 positive cases a day, talk about getting people back at work, concern about the economy and it felt a lot more positive. 4 people died in Ireland form Covid for the month of August. 4 too many but it really looked like we are doing well.

That's the Irish curve, you can see how flat it was and I can't look at it going up again, hear death cases being daily occurrence again and be not severely disappointed.

Ireland: coronavirus new cases | Statista

Ireland's COVID-19 stats reveal a decline in new cases after its peak of 936 on April 23, 2020.

www.statista.com

The staff was so sad in the restaurant yesterday. Last time they were told they are closing for 3 weeks, they were able to open 5 months later. this time their employer said at least 6 weeks before he consider his options.

 

[smwisc]

To be fair, it's sobering to read the stats from Florida and read the views here. I didn't find the comments intended to be hard, I read them as they are more reality check. I see the numbers in Florida - 170 deaths for one day I can see where are they coming from. I can give out as much as I want but the fact it, fed up is better than dead

The news were so good short while ago. Weeks without deaths, 10 positive cases a day, talk about getting people back at work, concern about the economy and it felt a lot more positive. 4 people died in Ireland form Covid for the month of August. 4 too many but it really looked like we are doing well.

That's the Irish curve, you can see how flat it was and I can't look at it going up again, hear death cases being daily occurrence again and be not severely disappointed.

Ireland: coronavirus new cases | Statista

Ireland's COVID-19 stats reveal a decline in new cases after its peak of 936 on April 23, 2020.

www.statista.com

The staff was so sad in the restaurant yesterday. Last time they were told they are closing for 3 weeks, they were able to open 5 months later. this time their employer said at least 6 weeks before he consider his options.

I wonder if Ireland's situation is being considered the "second wave" that was always predicted? In most parts of the US we never really got through the first wave, so talk of a "second wave" seems to have died down.

 

[Anne]

My concern is, regardless of the outcome of November's election, a great section of the population is either going to be acting the same, or, even worse, mad as hell and determined to use not wearing masks to show their rage - led by guess who.

My optimistic-self thinks those folks will be the exception. As with most things in current society the outliers are vocal and get a lot of coverage that makes them appear more prevalent. Our clinic is pretty vigilant about masks. We have a greeter and temp/mask-checker at the front door and every other door is locked. Every day there's at least one challenging encounter, and we have a team and a protocol in place to respond. On the other hand there are hundreds of people each day who follow the protocol and understand why it's important. It's a non-issue for the majority of encounters. But at the end of the day it is hard not to focus on that outlier.

My subconscious might be more pessimistic. After all this mask-talk I was dreaming all night of showing up in places where I was the only one with a mask. "yeah, the mask mandate expired last night so that must mean we don't need them anymore."

 

[DopeyRunr]

Your experience in a clinic does not match my experience around town or on the college campus where I work. As long as high school kids think they're immune and don't need to mask or distance, and 20-somethings on campuses party in large groups mask-free, the virus will continue to spread.

Look at the Sturgis motorcycle rally. Look at the crowds at Trump rallies. It's clear that 30-35% of the US population is sticking with Trump no matter what, and that group views the virus as a hoax and masks as only slightly less oppressive than slavery. Add that 30-35% to the other old and young people who aren't following the rules and what you're seeing as an exception or outlier, I'm seeing as more than enough to keep the virus active and require the rest of us to sacrifice.

 

[George]

Your experience in a clinic does not match my experience around town or on the college campus where I work. As long as high school kids think they're immune and don't need to mask or distance, and 20-somethings on campuses party in large groups mask-free, the virus will continue to spread.

Look at the Sturgis motorcycle rally. Look at the crowds at Trump rallies. It's clear that 30-35% of the US population is sticking with Trump no matter what, and that group views the virus as a hoax and masks as only slightly less oppressive than slavery. Add that 30-35% to the other old and young people who aren't following the rules and what you're seeing as an exception or outlier, I'm seeing as more than enough to keep the virus active and require the rest of us to sacrifice.

Hell, look at DFW airport. Every day. Hundreds of people huddled together, not distancing, and largely unmasked. Then there are those who fight with airline personnel when told they must wear one. I think the problem is prevalent enough to have kept our numbers rising months after other countries' numbers would have been falling. It's a non-issue in most cases, yes, until it isn't. And then look out. I don't call that thinking pessimistic. It's realistic.

 

[bnoble]

Compliance, already VERY far below universal, is only going to decline as the months drag on.

Anecdotally, it seems like compliance here in Ann Arbor has gotten better, not worse. I have not yet been on campus, but reports have been that compliance there has been good too. (Masks required without exception on campus, indoors or out).

Hell, look at DFW airport. Every day. Hundreds of people huddled together, not distancing, and largely unmasked.

I am booking a flight for E, and a connection is required. I am routing her through DTW rather than ATL for exactly this reason---we don't believe ATL is likely to take things seriously enough.

 

[amk3]

I'm also optimistic about covid in 2021. Current group behavior plus some % immunity has the US's reproductive rate in every state fluctuating between 0.75 and 1.25. With a partially effective partially distributed vaccine, advances in home rapid testing and more knowledge of/shutdown of super spreader locations, we could be down to occasional localized outbreaks by spring.

But I'm pessimistic about kids who missed learning how to read. At all income levels, there are kids who don't come naturally to reading and aren't going to progress without access to a teacher with specialized training. And at all income levels there are parents who aren't engaged for a variety of reasons. But when you get out to neighborhoods with high crime, high intergenerational poverty, and few interventions, the PTSD and depression and anxiety levels in parents go up while the coping skills and resources decrease. A school near me ordinarily has about 70% of their third graders reading significantly below grade level even while the school itself is doing well on measures that look at how much a child progresses from the beginning to the end of the year. How are this year's third graders going to make it to high school graduation and some sort of job?

 

[DopeyRunr]

How are this year's third graders going to make it to high school graduation and some sort of job?

Clearly, they won't. It was their unfortunate position to be born one year too early or too late.

 

[Anne]

Your experience in a clinic does not match my experience around town or on the college campus where I work. As long as high school kids think they're immune and don't need to mask or distance, and 20-somethings on campuses party in large groups mask-free, the virus will continue to spread.

Look at the Sturgis motorcycle rally. Look at the crowds at Trump rallies. It's clear that 30-35% of the US population is sticking with Trump no matter what, and that group views the virus as a hoax and masks as only slightly less oppressive than slavery. Add that 30-35% to the other old and young people who aren't following the rules and what you're seeing as an exception or outlier, I'm seeing as more than enough to keep the virus active and require the rest of us to sacrifice.

I'm sorry I wasn't expressing myself very well. I didn't mean to imply my experience in a clinic was universal or even attainable for the majority of situations. I realize I'm coming from a very privileged situation where I have a lot more control over my work situation. I'm so sorry your work environment is not a safe one. I too see what you are seeing when I'm out in the community. And I find myself surprised by how quickly rage wells up when I see people indoors with the mask-on-the-chin in a state which has an indoor-mask-mandate. To the point I don't go anywhere, other than work, that is indoors. I pay for a gym membership and don't use the gym. We do all our shopping online, outdoor pick-up, or delivery. My kids' school is now allowing in-person but we will stay virtual. Even with so-so mask compliance our daily cases dropped in half once there was a formal State-wide mandate. But they've exploded again when the University started back up. So yes, I'm completely in agreement a universal mask mandate alone isn't going to be sufficient.

I was trying to use my clinic experience as an example of how people can be coerced into wearing a mask when you have something they want (Disney, medical care etc). I've seen that as soon as people aren't being watched a certain portion take off their masks. I've had contact with known COVID positive adults (not in any respiratory distress) that have to be reminded to keep their mask on or over their noses when I walk into the room. When I was speaking of outliers I meant the really militant individuals who make a fuss at our front door, or rant at CMs on Main Street. Who no matter what the penalty will refuse to wear a mask. My hope is that with a different administration and a universal national plan we can move some of those passively mask resistant (those who take their mask off when no one is looking or they think employees won't say anything but who do put the mask back up when prompted) to more consistently wear their masks in public places. But my optimism may very well be misplaced. I've certainly been wrong about this pandemic multiple times, especially in expecting it would bring us together as a nation.

 

[Anne]

I read a lot of articles about the pandemic. This one is a wonderful and thoughtful summary. If you have time to read anything this week, this is what I would recommend.

America Is Trapped in a Pandemic Spiral

As the U.S. heads toward the winter, the country is going round in circles, making the same conceptual errors that have plagued it since spring.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[DopeyRunr]

Sometimes my position comes across as pessimistic but I truly believe it’s realistic: we’ll never get mass compliance on basic prevention efforts. Read all three tweets in the thread.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1308143965754056705

 

[smwisc]

Sometimes my position comes across as pessimistic but I truly believe it’s realistic: we’ll never get mass compliance on basic prevention efforts. Read all three tweets in the thread.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1308143965754056705

Wow, that's depressing. I give him points for trying at least?

 

[smwisc]

I read a lot of articles about the pandemic. This one is a wonderful and thoughtful summary. If you have time to read anything this week, this is what I would recommend.

America Is Trapped in a Pandemic Spiral

As the U.S. heads toward the winter, the country is going round in circles, making the same conceptual errors that have plagued it since spring.

www.theatlantic.com

Ed Yong has written many thorough, thoughtful, insightful pieces, and this one is no exception. And it's depressing as hell.

 

[Nia]

What do you think about antibodies tests 8 months after original illness? My doctor advised against as too many false negatives

I got another relapse and I am trying to prepare as much as I can before my appointment with my gp tomorrow. Should I just ask for inhalers & steroids? If she pushes for rehab, considering I feel fine most of the time should I get referral and invest the time required to go to appointments that often don't bring many solutions. I much better nad I feel steroid inhalers will really do the job

We have second wave for sure. We are better prepared this time and we will get it under control. The majority of people comply with masks wearing. We have some but probably much lower % compared to US.