Coronavirus

Anne

Well-known member
I was referred to the post covid clinic & on steroids so lets see how it goes. I felt so well for 4 weeks, it's so od

Swedish epidemiologist recommending controlled spread for under 60's

I don't know about that to be honest, it doesn't seem popular view
Glad to hear you had a productive clinic visit! I think it's always helpful to see the clinicians who have expertise/more experience if you have a complex or new issue so the post covid clinic will likely be helpful.

"Controlled spread" isn't popular because it isn't possible to isolate everyone over 60. It's the young who work in the nursing homes and assisted living, hospitals, work in the grocery stores etc. There are plenty of over 60 folks still in the work force. And there will still be preventable deaths in the under 60s. It's just not a feasible option.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Nia

Anne

Well-known member
7 days into the option of in-person instruction at my kids' school (my kids are still virtual) and first COVID case reported. This is not unexpected given the current incidence in the community and the number of kids in the school. They have pretty good containment measures so it will be interesting to see how well those measures work in practice. Most of the school/camp outbreak case studies in the US have focused on the big outbreaks in venues where no masks were required. At our school the kids are in cohorts of 15-18 and they stay in these groups all day; classroom instructions, specials, lunch, recess. The cohort with the positive case is shut down for 2 weeks and the sibs of the positive child are home for 2 weeks. The whole school was notified that there was a case but not specifically who was positive or in what grade (although we know which grade, since parents talk). Masks are required for any indoor activity. Except they are taken off for lunch. At lunch they have a designated spot at the lunch table, spaced out 6 feet from their neighbors on either side, with Plexiglas running down the middle, windows open and fans on. Masks are not required for recess or gym if they are outside and the kids are supposed to maintain 6 feet distance and stick with only their cohort on the playground. I have heard from friends who have taken playground monitor duty that this, understandably with grade school children, does not always happen in practice. Hopefully with those measures they will be able to contain things to that 1 cohort. Unless sibs of the child were pre/asymptomatic and there are other classrooms impacted. Then you could potentially have a slow rolling spread through the classes. If they have no spread at all, even within the cohort of the positive child, that would be wonderful.
 

smwisc

Active member
7 days into the option of in-person instruction at my kids' school (my kids are still virtual) and first COVID case reported. This is not unexpected given the current incidence in the community and the number of kids in the school. They have pretty good containment measures so it will be interesting to see how well those measures work in practice. Most of the school/camp outbreak case studies in the US have focused on the big outbreaks in venues where no masks were required. At our school the kids are in cohorts of 15-18 and they stay in these groups all day; classroom instructions, specials, lunch, recess. The cohort with the positive case is shut down for 2 weeks and the sibs of the positive child are home for 2 weeks. The whole school was notified that there was a case but not specifically who was positive or in what grade (although we know which grade, since parents talk). Masks are required for any indoor activity. Except they are taken off for lunch. At lunch they have a designated spot at the lunch table, spaced out 6 feet from their neighbors on either side, with Plexiglas running down the middle, windows open and fans on. Masks are not required for recess or gym if they are outside and the kids are supposed to maintain 6 feet distance and stick with only their cohort on the playground. I have heard from friends who have taken playground monitor duty that this, understandably with grade school children, does not always happen in practice. Hopefully with those measures they will be able to contain things to that 1 cohort. Unless sibs of the child were pre/asymptomatic and there are other classrooms impacted. Then you could potentially have a slow rolling spread through the classes. If they have no spread at all, even within the cohort of the positive child, that would be wonderful.
I am interested to see how that plays out too. The headlines nationally tend to focus on the outbreaks, but I just read a couple of articles recently with some (very preliminary, very cautious) assessment that school reopenings, in general, do not seems to be accelerating community spread. Although what you describe is pretty close to a best-case scenario for what a school can do with regards to safety measures - there's almost no way the public schools would be able to do the same (unless only a small percentage of students come back and then are spread out among all the schools). I've been keeping an eye on the census-tract level data, and while the absolute numbers are low, it's not great on a per 100k basis.
 

Strangeite

Well-known member
What Anne is describing sounds very similar to the reopening plan for our public school system. Biggest difference is that for lunch they are also utilizing the hallways and gyms to keep people spread apart.

There is a rift growing in the City of Lexington right now. The incidence rate at the University of Kentucky is driving up the rate for Fayette County as a whole, which is making it difficult for the K-12 schools to reopen.
 

Micah008

Moderator
Staff member
There is a rift growing in the City of Lexington right now. The incidence rate at the University of Kentucky is driving up the rate for Fayette County as a whole, which is making it difficult for the K-12 schools to reopen.
This is happening in many college towns. My county has had cases skyrocket, but it is mostly due to the college and people in their 20's. Like you it also has caused many K-12 to switch to virtual (some started there), difficult for them to reopen, and others shut down the few fall sports that had started.


My county (La Crosse) has about 120K people total, but between 2 colleges and 1 tech school there are about 15k more students. All it took was college coming back in session and our numbers went way up. And we are small enough of a county that they are having a hard time keeping up with testing, no testing allowed without having symptoms, and the health department seems to be practically giving up on contract tracing and case interviews since they don't have the staff. (they did fairly well at these up until a few weeks ago)

This is the 7-day average, per 100k. From the county site 80.7% of Sept cases between ages 15-29.

(We actually were at 113 per 100k at the worst a week ago, but this site limits to 100 on the graph)
1601044145946.png
 

bnoble

he's right
Same story at U. Michigan. The students who came back to A2 came back in late August. We are just over three weeks out from that, and the outbreak is obvious in our campus dashboard. (The final week is partial, so ignore it for now.)


And, echoing others, the University's commitment to offering some in-person classes with the expectation that most students would return to A2 essentially forced the hand of the local school district to go remote-only. Without the University's reopening, that decision might have gone differently.

Relatedly, the faculty (very narrowly) issued a No Confidence vote in University leadership a week or two ago.
 

lovett1979

Active member
Wow, so remote college learning is (probably) more effective than remote grade school learning. But colleges would lose students (and their tuitions) if they were only offering online classes. So they are holding in-person classes, which is leading to higher numbers, which is forcing k-12s to shut down. That really stinks. Ashamed of my alma mater (UMich).
 

paxsarah

Active member
That's exactly the way it's going here with UGA in Athens. We actually had a big spike and a subsequent dropoff - whether that's a true decline in cases or simply students not getting tested (as social media scuttlebutt seemed to suggest) or some combination thereof, who knows? Even after the dropoff, we're around 3x the level in our county to allow the first phase of in-person learning for K-12 (which only includes special education and up to 2nd grade to start with). And our first home football game (with fans!) is in a week, so that'll be...interesting. Little kids are literally huddling around parked school buses that carry mobile hotspots to do their online schoolwork, partly as a result of UGA keeping students on campus.
 

bnoble

he's right
Wow, so remote college learning is (probably) more effective than remote grade school learning. But colleges would lose students (and their tuitions) if they were only offering online classes. So they are holding in-person classes, which is leading to higher numbers, which is forcing k-12s to shut down. That really stinks. Ashamed of my alma mater (UMich).
I voted No Confidence in the reopening plan, so I'm right there with you.
 

Anne

Well-known member
I am interested to see how that plays out too. The headlines nationally tend to focus on the outbreaks, but I just read a couple of articles recently with some (very preliminary, very cautious) assessment that school reopenings, in general, do not seems to be accelerating community spread. Although what you describe is pretty close to a best-case scenario for what a school can do with regards to safety measures - there's almost no way the public schools would be able to do the same (unless only a small percentage of students come back and then are spread out among all the schools). I've been keeping an eye on the census-tract level data, and while the absolute numbers are low, it's not great on a per 100k basis.
It is definitely about the best you can do (other than requiring masks outdoors as well) and not feasible for many of the public schools unfortunately. If they are not successful at keeping things relatively contained with these measures, that would not bode well for the public schools reopening at some point.

Looking at our state numbers, while nothing close to Florida or other hot spots, we roughly doubled after the University opened.

On a positive, Joe Rhode just posted this link


Dogs screening at Disney at some point? Implementation might be tricky. The article doesn't address it, but I'd be curious how long after infection dogs might still detect Coronavirus. The PCR certainly detects well past the period when people are thought to be contagious, in some situations.
 

DopeyRunr

the jeweled acrobats only perform amazing stunts f

Strangeite

Well-known member
Wow, so remote college learning is (probably) more effective than remote grade school learning. But colleges would lose students (and their tuitions) if they were only offering online classes. So they are holding in-person classes, which is leading to higher numbers, which is forcing k-12s to shut down. That really stinks. Ashamed of my alma mater (UMich).
From the beginning I've argued that society has a whole needs to be making the sacrifices necessary so that at least the K-5 kids can be in person, but we have been doing the opposite.
 

smwisc

Active member
What Anne is describing sounds very similar to the reopening plan for our public school system. Biggest difference is that for lunch they are also utilizing the hallways and gyms to keep people spread apart.

There is a rift growing in the City of Lexington right now. The incidence rate at the University of Kentucky is driving up the rate for Fayette County as a whole, which is making it difficult for the K-12 schools to reopen.
Yep, same here. Although the numbers not associated with the university are going up as well, and public health is saying there isn't clear evidence of spillover from the university, that most likely much of the increase is from other sources of community spread.
 

smwisc

Active member
This is happening in many college towns. My county has had cases skyrocket, but it is mostly due to the college and people in their 20's. Like you it also has caused many K-12 to switch to virtual (some started there), difficult for them to reopen, and others shut down the few fall sports that had started.


My county (La Crosse) has about 120K people total, but between 2 colleges and 1 tech school there are about 15k more students. All it took was college coming back in session and our numbers went way up. And we are small enough of a county that they are having a hard time keeping up with testing, no testing allowed without having symptoms, and the health department seems to be practically giving up on contract tracing and case interviews since they don't have the staff. (they did fairly well at these up until a few weeks ago)

This is the 7-day average, per 100k. From the county site 80.7% of Sept cases between ages 15-29.

(We actually were at 113 per 100k at the worst a week ago, but this site limits to 100 on the graph)
View attachment 11257
I really don't like what is going on in Dane right now, obviously, but honestly the rest of the state scares me more. We have family in the Fox Valley area, which is also terrible. And there's much less interest in taking any sort of precautions.
 

Strangeite

Well-known member
A week from today (Friday, not Saturday because we are playing to rope drop Saturday and it is now after midnight) my family will be visiting a theme park.

This morning we all got flu shots and coronavirus tests. Basically, going into lock down before we be stupid. Our kids are scheduled to start in person the Wednesday after we return. We are keeping them at home until we get a negative test result and not taking the test until we are home for 60 hours.

and I still feel guilty. After the wonderful people gave us our shots and probed our brain, my daughter couldn‘t keep it in and announced we were going to Disney! I was embarrassed. The PA told her that her brother just got back and we were lucky because the lines were almost nonexistent.

My daughter looked at me with that knowing look.

“That was true in the summer and they are still low historically, but this isnt our first trip and won’t be our last. We are adjusting expectations on the fly and know this will be a trip like we will never have again”
 

Anne

Well-known member
I got a negative result on my covid test I took Friday. (that nasal swab was fun)

I don't know what the false negative percentages are, but I can't kick this fever. I guess it doesn't really matter what the result was because I would probably be doing the same things I am now with a positive result.
No one knows for sure. Each test is different. And real life accuracy is considerably lower than under lab testing conditions. In practice a single test has the potential for 20% false negative rate. I have multiple families with some positive, some negative, all exposed, all with some symptoms. I'm pretty sure they all have COVID. If you are an adult with a significant fever and no other identifiable cause it's still more likely COVID than not, even with a negative test. Which is why our health department guidelines, provided in writing to each person tested, state you should quarantine 10 days from onset of symptoms and be fever free at least 24 hrs, regardless of test results..
 
Top