Coronavirus

Nia

Well-known member
But #3 is what is keeping the lockdown going indefinitely. No one can go back to work, back to school, back to the grocery store, back to normal living, until we decide to let people be indoors together. The nuances are going to be in "how much risk are you willing to take, and how much risk should the gathering place allow?"
Schools in Ireland are open and a lot of effort goes to keep them open. There are kids who live in broken families and schools offer safe place, essential staff need childcare, there kids/families who don't have enough home devices and if you have 3 kids under 8 trying to learn from home - good luck to the parents trying to work.

Groceries shopping are open and staff had very low or no infections through the crisis. People move through the shops, don't tend to spend 15 minutes close to the same person and we wore mask/kept distance.

I was hoping I will go back to office 1 day a week in October but that was in August when the numbers were so low

When your ICU beds are over 75% occupied, and you are close to situation having to make choices who will get treated and who won't that's the time it is no longer a risk but a issue and you have to decide do you save people or jobs.

I hope things will settle so we have little more freedom around Christmas.
 
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Nia

Well-known member
It seems as though much of the growth here too is due to parties, family gatherings etc. rather than large gatherings in public places - which makes it harder to develop or enforce restrictions that are going to make a difference.
That's because there hasn't been any large public gatherings here. If there were, I am sure they will take the lead.
 

smwisc

Active member
It actually doesn't require a nuanced understanding. It really is this simple:
1. Wear a mask
2. Maintain physical distancing
3. Avoid large groups, especially indoors
4. Wash your hands frequently
Well, okay, that's not particularly nuanced for people capable of higher-level thinking (which is why I particularly appreciate the people on this thread). But it is nuanced compared to "don't live in fear, live life as normal" and "stay in your house and don't go anywhere, even an outdoor/masked/distanced social contact is totally irresponsible" - both of which I see regularly in comments elsewhere (I know, I know).

And with number three in particular, I think there is still some nuance, because of the interplay between numbers, duration, ventilation, spacing, etc. Maybe nuance isn't quite the right word. But it's not entirely a yes/no decision point. Anytime something requires weighing multiple factors, people's heads seem to explode.
 

Mrs Darling

Well-known member
I recently shared this graphic with my parents because they have been wanting to do the right thing, but apparently didn’t realize eating in restaurants was risky!? Sigh. 00AB1B06-3B27-4F7D-BDD1-B1B2FFFF59FE.png
 
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DopeyRunr

the jeweled acrobats only perform amazing stunts f
I am shocked that exercise at a gym isn't considered high risk - from everything I've seen, it's one of the highest risk activities (lots of deep inhaling and exhaling in a confined space for 30+ minutes). Frankly it makes me question the validity of the list...
 

smwisc

Active member
I am shocked that exercise at a gym isn't considered high risk - from everything I've seen, it's one of the highest risk activities (lots of deep inhaling and exhaling in a confined space for 30+ minutes). Frankly it makes me question the validity of the list...
That is surprising - other similar lists/graphics I've seen have had gyms as high risk.

It also seems strange to have "stop routinely wearing a mask", as that's an entirely different sort of thing.
 

Strangeite

Well-known member
I am shocked that exercise at a gym isn't considered high risk - from everything I've seen, it's one of the highest risk activities (lots of deep inhaling and exhaling in a confined space for 30+ minutes). Frankly it makes me question the validity of the list...
I can’t tell you where but I remember seeing this exact chart before and it was much earlier in the pandemic. I am certain it was before the widespread acceptance that the virus was transmitted via aerosol spray. I want to say Julyish is when I saw it.
 

Not That Josh

Well-known member
I am shocked that exercise at a gym isn't considered high risk - from everything I've seen, it's one of the highest risk activities (lots of deep inhaling and exhaling in a confined space for 30+ minutes). Frankly it makes me question the validity of the list...
None of those listed are fixed in place. For example, the highest risk thing I have done on that list is eat at a restaurant, but I went at a low traffic time and the place was essentially empty (maybe lower medium risk). If someone eats at a busy restaurant that's probably pushes into high risk.

Charts like this are more for people who can't do their own math using something like the "risk factors to consider" list on the left of the graphic.
 

Not That Josh

Well-known member
I can’t tell you where but I remember seeing this exact chart before and it was much earlier in the pandemic. I am certain it was before the widespread acceptance that the virus was transmitted via aerosol spray.
It would make sense if a chart made now would have a few differences as more is learned. It's not a bad tool if you are trying to explain risk reduction to someone who is struggling with the concept.
 

Nia

Well-known member
But it is nuanced compared to "don't live in fear, live life as normal" and "stay in your house and don't go anywhere, even an outdoor/masked/distanced social contact is totally irresponsible" - both of which I see regularly in comments elsewhere (I know, I know).

Large outdoor gatherings are pure insanity in my opinion

Re contact tracing, it happened here too recently. The average contacts for each person was around 6 at some point of time, if there are 1000 new a day that's 7000 calls that need to be make one day. And the average of 6 is probably not valid since schools open - 1 case in my son's school meant 21 others had to be in isolation - school set up is complicated. We need to get the numbers down to be able to handle the contact tracing better.

Fines and jail time for rule breaking so hopefully that will calm down the party crowd. I am feeling positive the new restrictions here will work

what happened in ND? for such small population, 1000 a day is huge
 

smwisc

Active member
Large outdoor gatherings are pure insanity in my opinion

Re contact tracing, it happened here too recently. The average contacts for each person was around 6 at some point of time, if there are 1000 new a day that's 7000 calls that need to be make one day. And the average of 6 is probably not valid since schools open - 1 case in my son's school meant 21 others had to be in isolation - school set up is complicated. We need to get the numbers down to be able to handle the contact tracing better.

Fines and jail time for rule breaking so hopefully that will calm down the party crowd. I am feeling positive the new restrictions here will work

what happened in ND? for such small population, 1000 a day is huge
Our county just had to switch to "crisis mode" contact tracing, because they just can't keep up. :(
 

DopeyRunr

the jeweled acrobats only perform amazing stunts f
I remember someone (Fauci maybe? or Cuomo?) saying in early spring that if you're doing things right, it will look like you overreacted. Because if you wait to enact the public health and safety measures until it *seems* like you really need them, by then it will be too late. That's what it looks like with communities who can't effectively contact trace, who can't turnaround test results in 24-48 hours (or less) because the systems are overwhelmed. The right approach is to okay with being mocked for having an unneeded 1,500 bed hospital ship docked in the harbor, rather than seeing hundreds or thousands of patients left to die because hospitals are at full capacity. But most politicians aren't okay with the risk of looking foolish.

I just read a story about how few states have taken advantage of Google and Apple basically building contact tracing apps (all the states need to do is enter a tiny bit of configuration information). It may have been a conscious choice not to build it a few months ago, but now those states probably don't have the personnel to implement the system because they're just trying to keep their head above water.

US-contact-tracing-apps.jpg
 

Anne

Well-known member
I'm exhausted. Our case numbers and hospitalizations here are at an all time high and a very small number of people are getting more entrenched in their viewpoint about masks. Those 1-2 people I encounter each day take a high toll emotionally. There was a person yesterday where it literally crossed my mind during a visit, "Is this person deliberately trying to infect people?" I just can't even believe we've come to the point where I can count on feeling threatened and vulnerable at least once each day that I work (which I realize is less than what many front-line workers are facing). And mostly I worry about how my work could impact my husband and feel overwhelming guilt.

My colleague is back at work but still fatigued and only able to eat toast. Colleague says adult son (different infection source) is 2 months out and feels "75%" of baseline. My husband has an employee (who has been 100% working from home since March) who is positive (got it from a family member who provides child care). This is a person in 30s, fit, no chronic illness, works out every day. Low oxygen in ER twice, coughing up blood, but not "bad enough" to be hospitalized because "we are trying to save beds for those who REALLY need them."

In my free time I have friends telling me about in-home painting parties, cake decorating parties, eating out, travel plans, and going to infant swim lessons. They tell me they are "over it" and ask me "Is it really that bad? Isn't it just that we're testing more than the spring?" I wish I could be "over it". Their personal experience is so very different from mine. It's become a widening gulf.

The crazy thing is I'm finding solice in reading a book set in occupied France during the 2nd World War. I thought it might be too depressing. I'm questioning my sanity that I'm finding comfort in thinking "Well it could be a lot worse." But maybe it's reading about heroic actions in the face of far worse circumstances that is the comforting part.
 

DopeyRunr

the jeweled acrobats only perform amazing stunts f
It seems like for a significant percentage of the population, it doesn't really exist, except *maybe* when it affects them personally (Chris Christie, or my previously-mask-denier colleague whose healthy friend fell off his mountain bike, broke his collarbone, went to the ER, caught COVID there and died). What a tragedy.
 

George

wishes he had a pink frolicing llama under his tag
So I guess the 400,000 dead by the end of the year prediction is probably going to be true.
 

paxsarah

Active member
I think a real missed opportunity is at the beginning of the pandemic, I really thought there would be more creative ways of continuing some semblance of normalcy but in a safer, COVID-aware way. Instead, we've ended up with a sizable segment of the population who wants to ignore it and do everything they used to do, the way they used to do it, and it stifles the ability to change our communal mindset to something that would reward (or make profitable) innovation in safe socializing.

That said, when you have a group of people who are on board with reality, you can come up with a way to have a meaningful gathering that is also safe. My church choir has been meeting on Zoom since March, and our church (based on denominational guidance) planned early on that it wouldn't open to in-person services and events until at least May 2021. But following the science, it was recently decided that outdoor, masked groups of 10 or less could meet on our grounds, and so now we have a hybrid choir experience. It was so nice to sing with my community! These are the things that make me hopeful.
IMG_4671.jpeg
 
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