Coronavirus

[RetroCOTfan]

Today's news of a second vaccine, this one from Moderna, and its efficacy rate have me wanting to be hopeful. I know we have a long way to go, and the worst months ahead of us, but I'm hopeful that just having a potential timeframe might encourage more people to be compliant with the safety measures that will reduce exposures this winter. But we still have so far to go, and there is still so much resistance - from the top down. My family wants to get back to WDW next summer, but only time will tell; we'll just keep doing the right thing and hoping enough other people do, too.

 

[Strangeite]

I highly suspect our governor will announce today that schools won't reopen after Thanksgiving.

 

[amk3]

The most optimistic projections, we're looking at 40% of the country vaccinated by the end of March, plus immunity from infection in the 5-20% range depending on whether your state has had a severe outbreak in the preceding 5-6 months. That's close to the herd immunity threshold estimates by 3/31, so now I'm trying to decide what we're going to do for our spring break!

 

[George]

I cancelled my May trip, figuring it was just a bit too close to call with the vaccine timeline. I banked my DVC points to September 2021 Use Year for the Big 50th Anniversary trip, which starts at the end of September. I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll be semi-OK for that one, and it'll be the first trip in a long time that we might actually get to go on.

 

[DopeyRunr]

I guess many (most?) would call me a pessimist, but I believe these projections of getting "back to normal" within just a few months set up a pattern similar to "cases will soon be zero," "when the weather warms up it will just go away," and "we're turning the corner." And then there's a feeling of dread when these expectations aren't met. I think it's more realistic to expect things to resemble normalcy by the end of 2021.

I remember reading on here just a couple of months ago a projection that Florida cases in just a matter of weeks would be well below 10 out of 100,000 because transmission rates were so low. Imagine making plans based upon that projection and a couple of months later seeing cases 4x where they were.

For me, personally, I'm steeling myself for what will be the worst six months of this whole thing. Possibly the worst six month stretch of my adult life. With cases and deaths at insane rates, government functions severely hampered, conflict on social justice and other issues continuing to escalate, and heading into the coldest, darkest weather of the year. I'm hoping for the best but not planning on things looking and feeling better until March/April.

 

[George]

I guess many (most?) would call me a pessimist, but I believe these projections of getting "back to normal" within just a few months set up a pattern similar to "cases will soon be zero," "when the weather warms up it will just go away," and "we're turning the corner." And then there's a feeling of dread when these expectations aren't met. I think it's more realistic to expect things to resemble normalcy by the end of 2021.

I remember reading on here just a couple of months ago a projection that Florida cases in just a matter of weeks would be well below 10 out of 100,000 because transmission rates were so low. Imagine making plans based upon that projection and a couple of months later seeing cases 4x where they were.

For me, personally, I'm steeling myself for what will be the worst six months of this whole thing. Possibly the worst six month stretch of my adult life. With cases and deaths at insane rates, government functions severely hampered, conflict on social justice and other issues continuing to escalate, and heading into the coldest, darkest weather of the year. I'm hoping for the best but not planning on things looking and feeling better until March/April.

I'm preparing for the 6-8 month timeline too.

 

[bnoble]

We just decided to pull the plug on our Hawaii holidays trip. Our next trip anywhere is Up North in May, and then we'll try Hawaii again in August.

 

[RetroCOTfan]

I'm preparing for the 6-8 month timeline too.

We are hoping to be able to go during our normal late July/early August timeframe, but that date is a purely aspirational goal. @DopeyRunr nailed it - there are way too many things that are not optimal right now to believe things are going to magically reverse course, especially when so many seem hellbent to ensure we continue on our current trajectory.

 

[Art Vandelay]

The most optimistic projections, we're looking at 40% of the country vaccinated by the end of March, plus immunity from infection in the 5-20% range depending on whether your state has had a severe outbreak in the preceding 5-6 months. That's close to the herd immunity threshold estimates by 3/31, so now I'm trying to decide what we're going to do for our spring break!

How do we achieve herd immunity from a virus that can change and re-infect? I haven't seen any information on this.

 

[amk3]

How do we achieve herd immunity from a virus that can change and re-infect? I haven't seen any information on this.

You haven't heard, or you are filtering with a pessimistic lens? We are nine months into an unprecedented worldwide research effort with quite a bit to show for it. We know this virus doesn't mutate quickly. We know most who survive have an immunity period. We know it's likely the average immunity period will be several months (based on limited studies) and that the immunity period is not likely to be longterm (based on research on other coronaviruses). We know enough that researchers have been able to develop not just one but multiple vaccines at a new record pace. Researchers are also able to have an educated comparison of models to try to predict whether herd immunity occurs at 50% or 70%+.

 

[DopeyRunr]

You haven't heard, or you are filtering with a pessimistic lens?

I’ve got to say, scrolling back through this thread and reading your posts, including the praise of Lindsey Graham’s response to the pandemic, is like a window to an alternate universe.

 

[smwisc]

We are hoping to be able to go during our normal late July/early August timeframe, but that date is a purely aspirational goal. @DopeyRunr nailed it - there are way too many things that are not optimal right now to believe things are going to magically reverse course, especially when so many seem hellbent to ensure we continue on our current trajectory.

We are "planning" on July 2021, but it will tentative for a long, long time. We have tickets expiring Sept 2021, and I booked a house already (found a fully refundable until 30 days out one that I liked for a good price). I hope we can go, and by then I'm willing to sacrifice quite a bit as far as experience goes (for one thing, having to move those tickets would cost a lot; for another, we haven't been in 5--no, 6--years). But if it isn't safe, or if the experience is just dismal, we won't go.

 

[amk3]

I’ve got to say, scrolling back through this thread and reading your posts, including the praise of Lindsey Graham’s response to the pandemic, is like a window to an alternate universe.

Graham has moments, and when he does he tends to be quite apt with his phrasing. "Try running an economy with major hospitals overflowing, doctors and nurses forced to stop treating some because they can’t help all, and every moment of gut-wrenching medical chaos being played out in our living rooms, on TV, on social media, and shown all around the world. There is no functioning economy unless we control the virus." Thankfully total hospital overloads have been rare in the US. But what a year.

 

[amk3]

For me, personally, I'm steeling myself for what will be the worst six months of this whole thing. Possibly the worst six month stretch of my adult life. With cases and deaths at insane rates, government functions severely hampered, conflict on social justice and other issues continuing to escalate, and heading into the coldest, darkest weather of the year. I'm hoping for the best but not planning on things looking and feeling better until March/April.

Replace "six months" with "ten weeks", and eliminate the idea it will be terrible for me personally, and I'm there with you. It's going to be dire. Stupidly dire. Sweden embracing herd immunity last spring isn't the choice I would have made, but at least I could see the logic. The earliest anyone expected a vaccine was two years, but given past timeframes two years seemed incredibly optimistic. But now, why are so many taking unnecessary risks? Even a pessimistic version of Pfizer and Moderna's projections puts us in a very different situation by spring.

Fyi, Florida did hit 10 cases per 100K. In my post on 9/04 I referenced two growth rate estimates that would put FL there in 10-32 days and that Orange County might get there earlier. I continued to monitor because we had a short trip planed. Orange County got there in 3 days, and FL in 36 days. Vaccine trajectories aren't certain enough for me to make non-cancellable travel plans, but they are far enough along to make plans.

 

[Art Vandelay]

You haven't heard, or you are filtering with a pessimistic lens?

If I wrote "I haven't seen any information on this," it means that I haven't seen any information on this. Please don't read anything into that. If my point was that I had doubts about achieving herd immunity, which I do, then I would have written, "I have my doubts about herd immunity."

We don't know the logistics of how the vaccine will get to the public.

We don't know how delays in the presidential transition will affect the distribution of the vaccine.

We don't know how many people will refuse to be vaccinated.

Way to many unknowns and moving parts here to know what's going to happen. FYI, what I mean here is "Way to many unknowns and moving parts here to know what's going to happen."

 

[bnoble]

We also don't know whether or how long having a past infection conveys protection from future infections---either in presence or severity. There are documented cases of reinfection, some of which were more severe the second time around.

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www.thelancet.com

I'm not sure if any country has an aggressive surveillance testing program; if they do that will generate a lot of more-than-anecdotal data.

 

[amk3]

We also don't know whether or how long having a past infection conveys protection from future infections---either in presence or severity. There are documented cases of reinfection, some of which were more severe the second time around.

We do know whether there's protection. One reason we know we know: the protection can be detected in blood tests. Another reason: if there were no protection there would be such a large number of cases that we wouldn't see individual case studies. We don't know the length of the protection. I've been following the EU's SARS-1 expert since spring. His early educated guess was the protection would be at least a few months but unlikely to last 2+ years. Now, we have an initial study (linked above) that suggests the average protection period is likely to be at least 5 months.

 

[bnoble]

The case in that study above had a reinfection in 48 days. Is that an outlier? Maybe.

 

[amk3]

While surviving infection doesn't guarantee immunity, the best evidence is that most who have had the illness will likely have a period of immunity. New preprint released this week was covered in the NYT yesterday. Again a very small group, but on multiple measures of immune system responses specific to surviving infection, 90% had response at the 6-8 month range. We are in the dark days. The US is averaging 157K new daily confirmed infections and the EU is at 186K daily. The slight increase to immunity isn't worth the suffering and death the new infections represent, but it is the only silver lining to those heartbreaking numbers.

I can see good reasons for preparing yourself mentally for 6-8 months. I'm sure we will be dealing with this disease for multiple years. But I'm also seeing people in my circle who are so fatigued they have begun to take risks or are shutting down. Especially children, teens and the elderly. For any of you who also have people who are depressed or who need to be persuaded to be cautious just a bit longer, there's every reason to see hope in spring. The measures we are currently taking have kept reproduction of the disease below 1.5 in all states, with most states fluctuating 0.85 to 1.25. Our world changes with just a tiny additional decrease in that range. One month holding a consistent 0.85 reduces cases by 70%. One month at 0.70 reduces cases by 93%.

And we are realistically most likely on the cusp of a few factors that will further reduce the rate. Initial vaccinations are the #1 reason. Polls show on a bipartisan basis respondents believe Biden is better suited to managing COVID, so even those who dislike the transition expect to see better COVID management begin in late January. (One piece I'm thrilled to see is already in the transition plan: more targeted shutdowns of super spreader locations with financial support for affected businesses.) To those expectations we can add the only positive of a terrible fall and winter: a boost of the % immunized with a slight increase in background immunity.

 

[amk3]

But Dr. Fauci put it better: “A vaccine should not be considered as a total substitute at this point for public health measures. In my mind, it should be an incentive for people who have Covid fatigue and are really tired of public health measures to say, you know there is light at the end of the tunnel, help is coming, let me hang in there a bit longer. If we could just hang on enough to do that until we get enough people vaccinated to turn around the dynamics of the outbreak, we will be OK."