Coronavirus

[Strangeite]

I highly suspect our governor will announce today that schools won't reopen after Thanksgiving.

The hammer came down yesterday. Virtual schools, no indoor dining at all, no gatherings of more than two households with a maximum of 8 people, no events of more than 25 people and everyone must be masked and 6 feet apart, fall sports cancelled, etc.

Dr. Stack, our Director of Public Health in the state, teared up and was quite emotional while he explained why these steps were necessary. The dude was President of the AMA and agreed to take the job something like 60 days before the pandemic hit. But for 5000 votes last November, my state would be a very different place this year.

 

[Alcachofa]

Wear a mask and wash your hands thoroughly. That's all people have to do. This has been widely known since late March (and some were saying this even earlier). Why are the people who are most vocal against the "lockdowns" also the same people who do nothing to prevent future ones?

Sad that this hasn't sunk in even five months later.

 

[DopeyRunr]

Sad that this hasn't sunk in even five months later.

It goes back to that quote "I don't know how to explain to you that you should care about other people." Whether it's wearing a mask, supporting a livable wage, or universal access to affordable health care, if you're not starting from a place of empathy, there is no logical argument that will convince you.

 

[bnoble]

if you're not starting from a place of empathy, there is no logical argument that will convince you.

It's worse than that. There are often compelling economic arguments for some progressive issues, but because they might help "those people" many are unwilling to pay for them even when it is clear that the programs more than pay for themselves. We don't just lack empathy, we are actively punitive.

 

[George]

It's worse than that. There are often compelling economic arguments for some progressive issues, but because they might help "those people" many are unwilling to pay for them even when it is clear that the programs more than pay for themselves. We don't just lack empathy, we are actively punitive.

And yet many of those are now begging for "stimulus" relief. Guess they're not so proud to take that; or they think that they've "earned" it. They're such hypocrites. The worst part is that their children are watching them, and learning the same.

 

[George]

 

[bnoble]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1328861214168977414

 

[DopeyRunr]

It's worse than that. There are often compelling economic arguments for some progressive issues, but because they might help "those people" many are unwilling to pay for them even when it is clear that the programs more than pay for themselves. We don't just lack empathy, we are actively punitive.

Our governance at this point is reduced to appeal to the lowest common denominator: people with a lack of empathy and a level of ignorance they seem to take pride in.

 

[George]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1328861214168977414

She might just be ALL of them!

 

[lovett1979]

Here in NYC, the schools have been shut-down and are all-remote, starting today. We also expect gyms and indoor dining to close in the next few weeks. This is because the overall average for the city reached 3% yesterday. That some states are 40-50%, and doing nothing about it, is absolutely mind boggling to me.

 

[amk3]

The hammer came down yesterday. Virtual schools, no indoor dining at all, no gatherings of more than two households with a maximum of 8 people, no events of more than 25 people and everyone must be masked and 6 feet apart, fall sports cancelled, etc.

Thank goodness for those actions. Our school district has been virtual all year, but most of our districts are in-person and aren't switching to virtual at Thanksgiving.

 

[Anne]

We also don't know whether or how long having a past infection conveys protection from future infections---either in presence or severity. There are documented cases of reinfection, some of which were more severe the second time around.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30783-0/fulltext

I'm not sure if any country has an aggressive surveillance testing program; if they do that will generate a lot of more-than-anecdotal data.

The case in that study above had a reinfection in 48 days. Is that an outlier? Maybe.

Probably on the early side of the curve for re-infection. In that particular situation they were able to sequence the 2 strains and they were different enough that earlier re-infection makes sense. The big unknown of course is how often this will happen. With billions of people in the world "not often" could still be significant.

It's a bit concerning that it can happen that early. At my institution if you have a positive PCR and test positive again any time in the next 3 months they consider it a residual from the first infection and not evidence of re-infection. If those patients have no COVID symptoms (most are at the hospital for a non-COVID reason but all hospitalized patients are tested at admission), they are not put in isolation or on the COVID unit (as long as they have met their original quarantine requirements).

I'm sure many saw this:

Siberian virologist reinfects himself with coronavirus in experiment to test immunity

Alexander Chepurnov spent time with COVID-19 patients without a mask on in a bid to get the virus for a second time.

www.newsweek.com

That was a 6 month re-infection with more severe symptoms and hospitalization during the second infection. The initial infection was diagnosed by antibodies and not during acute infection so unfortunately the 2 strains could not be compared.

I saw the NYT article discussing the pre-print study Andrea mentions. "Eight months after infection, most people who have recovered still have enough immune cells to fend off the virus and prevent illness, the new data show." I want to hope "most" is going to be enough. But we can't count on it until we have a whole lot more experience and data.

 

[Anne]

We had some new mandates last week. One was that gyms could remain open for "open gym" at the previous capacity limits with masks and distancing. But group exercise classes are now banned indoors and are limited to 10 people with masks outdoors. Within a couple days many of the gyms have shifted to having distanced "open gym" at the gym at the time of the classes with the workout written out for participants, a supervisor available to "help" and the ability to watch the instructor doing the virtual class via zoom on their own device. It's absurd. I feel for the gym owners. They are trying to keep their businesses going. And this time around we have restrictions without income support for those being asked to close or modify business. But this completely defeats the purpose of the order. We have schools that are virtual but kids go to school-run daycare (often at the school building) where they do their virtual school work with "tutors" to help. I get it, most parents still have to work. even though most of the schools are back to virtual until at least mid-January. I'm not sure what my point is other than frustration that we have these government public health orders that are half-measures that get diluted to no-measures and provide no support for the people they impact. It seems like 8-9 months in we should be better at this. Vermont has figured it out, why why why can't the rest of us do something similar???? (yes, it's a rhetorical question).

 

[smwisc]

I'm not sure what my point is other than frustration that we have these government public health orders that are half-measures that get diluted to no-measures and provide no support for the people they impact. It seems like 8-9 months in we should be better at this.

I share your frustration. And in addition to being burdensome and still ineffective, I think this dynamic actually undermines people's willingness to comply and furthers the narrative that it's just political showmanship. It seems like we need to either do things that are both enforceable and effective, or don't order anything at all. (and I'm a pragmatic incrementalist, so that's not a position I would normally take)

 

[geek1997]

How do we achieve herd immunity from a virus that can change and re-infect? I haven't seen any information on this.

I asked one of the women involved with the Covid Tracking Project and her response was, "It's not mutating significantly or at a pace that will make a vaccine ineffective." The level of T cell and B cell immunity is still being researched though and there appears to be some data that indicates that those with a mild symptoms/asymptomatic may not have as strong an immunity development. Which could be why there are reinfections with worse symptoms. Also, isn't this the way the flu vaccine works? They have to guess what it will look like each year since it mutates but the implication is that even if it doesn't prevent infection, it should lessen symptoms.

I had expressed some concern with the fact that there was so much excitement over a vaccine that minimizes symptoms, not providing sterilizing immunity (preventing infection). But after reading and listening more, there are several vaccines that work this way - including polio. It doesn't prevent you from getting it, just teaches your body how to deal with it. The control of community spread is where the real herd immunity lies. So even after a large number of vaccines are doled out, we'll still have to be wearing masks and physically distancing until the secondary infections are under control.

Here is an article I found helpful: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02400-7

 

[bnoble]

I found this thread helpful in understanding the apparent paradox between reinfection in ~months vs. vaccines that appear to be successful:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1330512603613974529

PS: Prof. Heemstra is one of my favorite science communicators. Definitely worth a follow.

 

[DopeyRunr]

I found this thread helpful in understanding the apparent paradox between reinfection in ~months vs. vaccines that appear to be successful:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1330512603613974529

PS: Prof. Heemstra is one of my favorite science communicators. Definitely worth a follow.

I read quite a bit of pushback from virologists and immunologists (she is neither) about misinformation or incorrect conclusions in that thread in particular - just wanted to add that cautionary note.

 

[bnoble]

I read quite a bit of pushback from virologists and immunologists (she is neither) about misinformation or incorrect conclusions in that thread in particular - just wanted to add that cautionary note.

Yeah, I think this is the corrected version (at least, it corrected one such problem. It may have done more.)

 

[Nia]

We are going out of lockdown next week. It's pure madness, December is insane on normal year - people shop and eat out and drink like their life depends on it. Opening things up for the month of december after month and half of lockdown will be insane and lockdown in January is predicted. the 14 day r rate per 100 000 population is about 100.

We have coped with this lockdown easier than I expected but I am concerned about upcoming weeks.

I am so not in mood for Christmas.

 

[Not That Josh]

I am so not in mood for Christmas.

Exactly how I feel.