Coronavirus

amk3

Active member
In the space of a year, north of 500K people in the US died from COVID. There are 330M people in the US. That's at least 150 dead per 100,000.

I just can't agree that 150 deaths per 100,000 people is "not that many" when we don't have any other infectious diseases in circulation that is closer than an order of magnitude less deadly.

But some of the context of the comment made by the person you were responding to: discussions of ongoing anxiety (or even panic) even post-vaccination. I think one way that allays my anxiety: let go of the goal of reducing risk to zero. Focus instead on layering mitigation to reach an acceptable risk level. And vaccination is one powerful layer of mitigation. For example, considering only the 93%/94% risk reduction that has been quantified for mRNA vaccines, 500,000 deaths reduced by 93.5% would be 33,000 deaths, or 10 per 100,000. That's on par with or lower than auto accidents, suicides and annual flu deaths.

We have reasonable hope total cases will decrease and that vaccination offers even higher protection against severe disease. For those reasons and others, I think we will see far fewer than 10 COVID deaths per 100K among those who have been vaccinated. But just like getting into a car or going out at any time during your life, the risk won't be zero.
 

DopeyRunr

the jeweled acrobats only perform amazing stunts f
For example, considering only the 93%/94% risk reduction that has been quantified for mRNA vaccines, 500,000 deaths reduced by 93.5% would be 33,000 deaths, or 10 per 100,000.

This is NOT AT ALL how efficacy percentages work. Please don't spread misinformation.
 

bnoble

he's right
But some of the context of the comment made by the person you were responding to: discussions of ongoing anxiety (or even panic) even post-vaccination.
I did not recall the post that way, so I went back and re-read it with your observation in mind.

On re-reading it, it is still my opinion that while the thread in that moment in time was centered on post-vaccination behavior, that poster was minimizing the impact of the virus pre-vaccine. So I stand by what I said the first time.
 

ThemeParkCommando

Active member
I did not recall the post that way, so I went back and re-read it with your observation in mind.

On re-reading it, it is still my opinion that while the thread in that moment in time was centered on post-vaccination behavior, that poster was minimizing the impact of the virus pre-vaccine. So I stand by what I said the first time.

I hesitate to respond, because I don't want to generate a flame war, but this forum is very good at discussing this issue. I support your view, bnoble. It IS a tragic situation. That is why I tried to mitigate my pretty heartless response with the word 'statistically'.

According to the worldometer-coronavirus, the USA has 332,516,170 people. 576,567 have passed from COVID. Statistically, by the numbers only, that is .17% of the population. 32,013,126 have caught the virus. By the numbers, that is 9.63%. From the CDC numbers, in the 2018 - 2019 Flu season, 42,900,000 caught the flu (estimated). That's during a year when the flu vaccine was readily available. IF the COVID vaccine is 93% effective, then the death numbers for those vaccinated should come down to be close to equal with the number of flu deaths.

My reason for bringing up the raw numbers, is that now that people are getting vaccinated, they still aren't comfortable with going back to life as normal. Heck, I'm one of them. I'm constantly having to remind myself that 1.) I am most likely going to catch this thing. 2.) It is going to suck to get it. 3.) Because I am vaccinated, I am less likely to die from it.

BUT - looking at the raw numbers is comforting to me, so I hope can bring some comfort to others. Once vaccinated, and if you are relatively healthy, your chances of dying from COVID are very slim, because even before the vaccine, your chances of dying from the disease was pretty slim.
 

amk3

Active member
My reason for bringing up the raw numbers, is that now that people are getting vaccinated, they still aren't comfortable with going back to life as normal. Heck, I'm one of them. I'm constantly having to remind myself that 1.) I am most likely going to catch this thing. 2.) It is going to suck to get it. 3.) Because I am vaccinated, I am less likely to die from it.

BUT - looking at the raw numbers is comforting to me, so I hope can bring some comfort to others. Once vaccinated, and if you are relatively healthy, your chances of dying from COVID are very slim, because even before the vaccine, your chances of dying from the disease was pretty slim.

I think many (including some on this forum) are experiencing an extremely high level of anxiety about the disease beyond what those studying the disease seem to be expressing. It feels like people divided into two camps, and then the extreme position taken by the covid deniers eventually pushed those being cautious over to more extreme positions that did not adjust as we received some good news about the disease.

COVID-19 has been brutal because of its high transmissibility coupled with enough severe cases to overwhelm hospitals. Once you've removed yourself from the high transmissibility through vaccination, if the remaining chance of contracting COVID-19 is on your mind, it might help to remember that the infection fatality rate is much closer to the flu than something like SARS or MERS. Themeparkcommando said under 2%. As of last summer, a number of studies placed the infection fatality rate more in the range of 0.5% to 1%.
 

DopeyRunr

the jeweled acrobats only perform amazing stunts f
I think many (including some on this forum) are experiencing an extremely high level of anxiety about the disease beyond what those studying the disease seem to be expressing.

It's awfully bold to drop into this thread after months of absence to judge other people's level of anxiety in a pandemic that
a) we are still very much in
and
b) is heading into another surge in many states.

Then again, I remember your rosy prediction in September that COVID would soon be tapering out in Florida.

Screen Shot 2021-04-13 at 3.38.16 PM.png
 

Anne

Well-known member
I want to jump in and clarify a scientific/numbers point. The efficacy percentage reported for each vaccine from the clinical trials is purely protection from symptomatic disease once fully vaccinated (2-4 weeks out from final dose). It does not speak to risk of death. In all 3 US approved vaccine trials there were 0 COVID deaths and 0 severe cases of COVID in those who were fully vaccinated (by 4 weeks out, there was some hospitalization before 4 weeks). So for those who are vaccinated there is almost zero (because real life will likely be a little different than the clinical trials) chance of an ICU stay or death from COVID.

I feel quite safe personally. The issue for me now that I am vaccinated is how do I protect others-my own children and those who I see at work and those in my community who have not had the opportunity for vaccination. I still have a small chance of developing symptomatic disease and therefore passing the virus on to others who are more vulnerable. The other thing to think about is that those in the trials were still likely practicing social distancing and wearing masks even though they were in the trial (technically it was blinded and they didn't know if they had gotten vaccine or placebo, although I lot knew due to side effects, they still didn't know yet if the vaccine would work). If we get rid of those other layers of protection (see Brian's swiss cheese model) do we see more mildly symptomatic cases in those who are vaccinated? In follow up testing under "real world" conditions protection with Pfizer was about 90% for symptomatic disease. Still great, but still not enough for me to disregard how my individual actions might impact those in my community. So even though I am vaccinated I'm still not comfortable with indoor dining, or really anything indoors where people do not wear masks. But I am ok with meeting up outside with vaccinated friends for a run (which has been huge for my mental health).

On a sad note Johnson and Johnson use was recommended to be suspended in the US today for investigation of very rare cases of blood clots. The hope is it will be a brief suspension. J and J uses the same technology as Astra Zeneca and they are seeing a very small number of cases of low platelets and blood clots in the 1-3 weeks following both vaccines, primarily in women under 60. Not the technology used for Pfizer or Moderna. The CDC is saying monitor for symptoms if you have had J and J in the last 3 weeks. If it's been 4 weeks or more you would be considered outside the window for risk.

ETA: I forgot to mention the B117 variant which is now 50% of cases in the US. Much more contagious. We just had a daycare outbreak in Wisconsin with 35 cases. We have seen smatterings of daycare transmission with the original strains (with mask/distancing precautions maybe 1-2 other kids or staff members get it) but nothing on this level. So we also need to be cognizant of the fact that what has worked well for prevention of spread in schools and daycares (all unvaccinated other than some staff) in the past may not work as well going forward.
 
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bnoble

he's right
I think many (including some on this forum) are experiencing an extremely high level of anxiety about the disease beyond what those studying the disease seem to be expressing.
Welcome to my ignore list. The rest of what I'd like to tell you is inappropriate for This Website, let alone polite company.
 

bnoble

he's right
BUT - looking at the raw numbers is comforting to me, so I hope can bring some comfort to others.
Thanks, this was helpful. I don't take the same comfort from the low rate, because the denominator is large, and so the numerator is too. So, it's not that I was personally worried about dying. It's that I am deeply hurt and troubled by the tragedy of so many people who did---many of whom would still be with us if we'd made some different decisions a year ago. But I understand a bit better what you are saying, and appreciate you sharing it!
 

josh

Administrator
Staff member
My wife is immunocompromised, so we have been wearing KN95 masks that are on the FDA EUA list this entire time, out of an abundance of caution. (We've actually been wearing the same one Bricker recommends, found here: KN95 masks)

The KN95 is like a warm bath compared to the N95. But maybe I'll pick up heavy sanding or something and have use for them at some point.
 

amk3

Active member
It's awfully bold to drop into this thread after months of absence to judge other people's level of anxiety in a pandemic that
a) we are still very much in
and
b) is heading into another surge in many states.

Then again, I remember your rosy prediction in September that COVID would soon be tapering out in Florida.

I don't think I'm under any duty to post, but I've posted most of the 14 terrible months since I started this thread, including in recent weeks. There are times I've read and not commented. I've learned you particularly don't care for my more optimistic take. But when I read about a vaccinated person too anxious to stay at a small family outdoor event, I thought I'd try once again to inject some optimism. And, you responded as expected.

You've said being prepared for the worst is better for you. I can see that. However, for me and for others I've interacted with, I see benefit in hope. Not false hope, but perhaps some optimism and staying away from pessimism. Here are some of the views you've expressed that make me believe your view is pessimistic rather than realistic:
  • In September 2020, after quite promising vaccine news, you said people should prepare for things to be the same or worse for 12 months.
  • In November 2020, you couldn't see how Dr. Fauci's claim any American who wanted a vaccine would be able to get one by the end of April could be achieved.
  • In November 2020, you were prepared for the next six months to be the darkest and the hardest - perhaps the hardest of your life. This was after Pfizer announced 90%+ results and 50 million doses by the end of 2020. It was also prior to the terrible news out of London in December (which did make me quite pessimistic for a few weeks).
  • In January 2021, you couldn't see how 18-34 year olds would have the option to be vaccinated by November 2021.
  • In February 2021, you were resigned that your daughter's fall semester of college in 2021 would be like Fall 2000.
It's beyond ridiculous I've gone back through this post in so much detail, and now I'm going to top that ridiculousness by recapping an exchange from seven months ago. Josh commented about the lack of people visiting Orlando theme parks and expressed concern the theme parks might have closures. I replied to Josh I could see demand increasing for two reasons: the end of summer heat/humidity and decreasing cases in Florida. In summer 2020, people (including me) were quite reluctant to go to Florida because cases were especially high. I noted that *if* Florida continued to have transmissions below 1.0 then the state was just 2-5 weeks away from falling below the metric 10 new cases daily per 100k. Florida did cross that threshold on October 10th - for all of one or two days before cases increased again. But Florida has not resumed its places as a frontrunner. Indeed, much to my surprise, Florida's experience seems to be about average for the US. To the point I made originally: there was most definitely a significant chance that theme park visitors would increase and the parks might avoid closures. So, add to my examples of pessimism that you have continued to mischaracterize an accurate prediction as "rosy" and "a window into an alternate universe."
 

josh

Administrator
Staff member
Someday they're going to tie everything that went on during this to Florida.

But in case it hasn't been said recently. Go get your vaccine if you haven't. And maybe get a heavy sander.
 

DopeyRunr

the jeweled acrobats only perform amazing stunts f
Wow I was remarkably prescient. Granted, I significantly underestimated the new administration’s ability to roll out a nationwide vaccine distribution strategy.
 

amk3

Active member
For our family it appears the mental impact of the past year is still a very real thing. We hosted our family’s Easter gathering yesterday, consisting of my (fully vaccinated) parents and my family. I am vaccinated also, but my spouse and children aren’t eligible yet. One of my daughters is high risk, but not old enough for the vaccine, so we all still take considerable precautions to prevent getting COVID.
My kids were so excited to see their grandparents for the first holiday in over a year! Unfortunately, my mom had a panic attack during the meal and left abruptly. She couldn’t handle eating outside of her home and being around my children who might be contagious but not feeling sick. She heard a news report say the “vaccine is equivalent to a fire suit, and if you had a fire suit you still wouldn’t walk into a fire” and feels she can’t go out even now to a low risk situation.

Mrs. Potts, I thought your mom might like to read this exchange on twitter. It's Nate Silver (so not a subject matter expert) criticizing Dr. Osterholm's statements including the "fireproof suit" comparison but there are experts joining in. I will definitely continue to engage in risk management until cases are lower, but I hope your mom can get out of some of the stress she's feeling.
 

moscow

Active member
ETA: I forgot to mention the B117 variant which is now 50% of cases in the US. Much more contagious. We just had a daycare outbreak in Wisconsin with 35 cases. We have seen smatterings of daycare transmission with the original strains (with mask/distancing precautions maybe 1-2 other kids or staff members get it) but nothing on this level. So we also need to be cognizant of the fact that what has worked well for prevention of spread in schools and daycares (all unvaccinated other than some staff) in the past may not work as well going forward.

This is what is making us very nervous in our house - the increased number of cases among younger aged people. Yes, my DH, my DD and I are all fully vaccinated - but my 11 year old is not. And even if "statistically" he might not die from getting the virus I don't want him to suffer through having the virus - period; and having the virus in our house would be deeply concerning because even though my DH is vaccinated, he takes Remicade which may mitigate the full effects of the vaccine.

Anne - I was talking with one of my DD's doctors the other day (we do our appointments via zoom now) and she mentioned that the J&J vaccine seemed to have a better protection against the new(er) variants of the virus. Do you know if this is true?

If it is, it makes the temporary suspension of the J&J vaccine that much more concerning and it is my fervent hope that they resolve the issues with it and Astra Zeneca quickly so we can get them back in the distribution chain.
 

Art Vandelay

that's a shame
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7016e1.htm?s_cid=mm7016e1_w

This got me thinking about the boarding process. Excluding SWA, which has open seating, I'm thinking that priority boarding may not be a good thing in the current climate. For example, your seat is fifth row aisle and you have priority boarding. 100+ people will be walking past you to get to their seats. Wait until most/all of the passengers are seated before you board and those 100+ aren't walking past you. Does this make sense?
 

Strangeite

Well-known member
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7016e1.htm?s_cid=mm7016e1_w

This got me thinking about the boarding process. Excluding SWA, which has open seating, I'm thinking that priority boarding may not be a good thing in the current climate. For example, your seat is fifth row aisle and you have priority boarding. 100+ people will be walking past you to get to their seats. Wait until most/all of the passengers are seated before you board and those 100+ aren't walking past you. Does this make sense?

Reminds me of this episode of Mythbusters.

 

Alcachofa

Active member
Not exactly Covid related, but kinda...

Massachusetts public schools have their spring break in mid/late April. When it doesn't line up with Easter, this is actually a good week to go to WDW.

April 2021 (next week) was supposed to be our big blow-out trip year. Nine days, Saturday to the following Sunday, probably staying at the Poly or Wilderness Lodge. This wasn't going to be the first or only trip to WDW, but it was going to be "the big one".

That's not happening.

Spring break in April 2022 lines up with Easter. Um, no thank you.

So April 2023 will probably be our big blow-out trip. It's only a drag because our kids are pretty close to a perfect age this year. In 2023 they'll be 2 years older. Not the end of the world, but it still kinda sux. I don't know if they'll even be interested in 9 days at WDW in two years. They've already started expressing interest in *gasp*... Universal.
 
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