Interesting comments on recent increase in wait times at park

bnoble

he's right
Your tin foil hat has to be awfully thick to believe that Disney is intentionally reducing capacity to increase wait times in October---a time that has become reasonably popular between Food & Wine, MNSSHP, and the increasing number of school districts that offer a 4-5 day weekend (often around Columbus Day) as a mid-semester break. It's also a month when MK has what might be the fewest operating hours of the year thanks to all of the parties that close the park at 7PM, putting a major dent in the available FP+ slots for anyone's entire trip.

Also, just because FP+ has been operational for almost two years, that doesn't mean that its penetration into the WDW market hasn't changed. It turns out guests who pre-plan spend significantly more money than those who don't. Explicitly supporting such pre-planning has been publicly acknowledged as a strategy from the early "Destination Disney" days when the Resort rolled out MYW, ME, and DDP. It is very reasonable to assume that the changes Disney has made in FP+/MM+ messaging over the past year have resulted in more people planning in advance, increasing the usage of FP+.

Finally, one of the primary goals of FP+ has been to increase utilization of "secondary" attractions, thereby increasing the carrying capacity of each park. Every empty seat in every ride vehicle is attraction capacity that is lost forever. The effect Josh discusses above, getting people to pre-plan a visit to secondary attractions, is a way to help keep every seat full. In other words, the attractions in each park collectively are servicing more guests. That's the only way wait times go up disproportionally to attendance increases (assuming capacity doesn't change, and it's vastly unlikely to have changed): more people are are experiencing more attractions in the aggregate.

Attendance is also going up, and I'm not sure its by only a few percent in 2015. I've not been paying super close attention, because I'm not an October visitor, but it seems as though many more MNSSHPs sold out this year vs. last year. I'm guessing that's not because Disney suddenly decided to sell fewer tickets to each Party. You also don't jack up your AP prices by double-digit percentage increases because your attendance growth is modest.

The good news is that it doesn't matter. In the last year, I've spent about three weeks at WDW---Christmas, Easter, and peak summer. All of those trips were great despite being among the worst possible weeks crowd-wise. We did everything we wanted to do, and had plenty of time to relax as well.
 

Havoc315

Banned
Your tin foil hat has to be awfully thick to believe that Disney is intentionally reducing capacity to increase wait times in October---a time that has become reasonably popular between Food & Wine, MNSSHP, and the increasing number of school districts that offer a 4-5 day weekend (often around Columbus Day) as a mid-semester break. It's also a month when MK has what might be the fewest operating hours of the year thanks to all of the parties that close the park at 7PM, putting a major dent in the available FP+ slots for anyone's entire trip.
I don't think anybody suggested an intentional increase in wait times. More like a reduction in capacity that unintentionally resulted in increased wait times.

I think it is safe to assume that staffing levels are different in July/August, than they are in September/October -- Probably dramatically different. Combined with higher attendance and fundamental changes due to greater adoption of FP+, it's possible that there was a miscalculation of the necessary staffing levels. I'm not saying this is the most likely... just saying it is not an impossibility.

Also, just because FP+ has been operational for almost two years, that doesn't mean that its penetration into the WDW market hasn't changed. It turns out guests who pre-plan spend significantly more money than those who don't. Explicitly supporting such pre-planning has been publicly acknowledged as a strategy from the early "Destination Disney" days when the Resort rolled out MYW, ME, and DDP. It is very reasonable to assume that the changes Disney has made in FP+/MM+ messaging over the past year have resulted in more people planning in advance, increasing the usage of FP+.
Agreed.... But then you would see a gradual change, as more people adopted FP+. This would not explain a sudden jump, if such sudden jump has actually occurred. Looking at the TP calendar -- As one would expect, early August was very very heavy. One normally expects the end of August to drop off significantly -- and indeed, late August/early September behaved as you would expect. But then it suddenly started to rise AFTER labor day. By mid September, crowds were much higher than expected on a regular basis.
One expects October to be light, but you see massive differences from the start. For example, TP had 10/3 predicted as a "3" but it was actually a "7"

One would need to take a much more detailed look, than I'm doing here.... but the higher adoption of FP+, alone, would not explain sudden shifts. If the shift really has been sudden that is.





Attendance is also going up, and I'm not sure its by only a few percent in 2015. I've not been paying super close attention, because I'm not an October visitor, but it seems as though many more MNSSHPs sold out this year vs. last year. I'm guessing that's not because Disney suddenly decided to sell fewer tickets to each Party. You also don't jack up your AP prices by double-digit percentage increases because your attendance growth is modest.
Actually.... there are indeed reports that Disney did greatly cut back on the party tickets. According to Len Testa: "We’ve heard that Disney has reduced the number of MNSSHP tickets available from 25,000 to 20,000."
(see TP blog)
 

3dadknight

New member
Agreed.... But then you would see a gradual change, as more people adopted FP+. This would not explain a sudden jump, if such sudden jump has actually occurred. Looking at the TP calendar -- As one would expect, early August was very very heavy. One normally expects the end of August to drop off significantly -- and indeed, late August/early September behaved as you would expect. But then it suddenly started to rise AFTER labor day. By mid September, crowds were much higher than expected on a regular basis.
One expects October to be light, but you see massive differences from the start. For example, TP had 10/3 predicted as a "3" but it was actually a "7"

The increased wait times have not been sudden. Josh has been reporting about them since shortly after FP+ was fully rolled out, and if I recall correctly, he has adjusted the wait times charts a couple of times over the past year or so. Also, TP had 10/3 as a CL 3 because they were flat out wrong. All the information was there to make a higher CL prediction. Although Josh's CL scale is a different concept than TP's, he in fact had 10/3 as a CL 7. To be more accurate and helpful TP needs to change something about their CL prediction scale or calculation.
As for "higher crowds than expected" after Labor Day, some things need clarification. How is a crowd measured? They were higher than expected by whom? How was the original expectation derived? If you are taking about TP and their definition and determination of crowds, it is solely based on wait times and their method of calculation has not taken into account the increased wait times since the advent of FP+. When they look at actual vs. predicted on their scale, they will usually be wrong because wait times are generally up as compared to years past. Their prediction error for 10/3 was not because there were 2 1/2 times more people at WDW on that day making the crowd a 7 rather than a 3. It was due to their method. I guess if I make such a big error in my job, my first reaction would be to say that something "suddenly" happened, too.

If the discussion is about wait times, we need to stick to "wait times." Interjecting discussion of crowd levels confuses the issue since different sites use vastly different methods to predict crowd levels.
 

cdmurphy727

New member
I don't think anybody suggested an intentional increase in wait times. More like a reduction in capacity that unintentionally resulted in increased wait times.

I think it is safe to assume that staffing levels are different in July/August, than they are in September/October -- Probably dramatically different. Combined with higher attendance and fundamental changes due to greater adoption of FP+, it's possible that there was a miscalculation of the necessary staffing levels. I'm not saying this is the most likely... just saying it is not an impossibility.



Agreed.... But then you would see a gradual change, as more people adopted FP+. This would not explain a sudden jump, if such sudden jump has actually occurred. Looking at the TP calendar -- As one would expect, early August was very very heavy. One normally expects the end of August to drop off significantly -- and indeed, late August/early September behaved as you would expect. But then it suddenly started to rise AFTER labor day. By mid September, crowds were much higher than expected on a regular basis.
One expects October to be light, but you see massive differences from the start. For example, TP had 10/3 predicted as a "3" but it was actually a "7"

One would need to take a much more detailed look, than I'm doing here.... but the higher adoption of FP+, alone, would not explain sudden shifts. If the shift really has been sudden that is.







Actually.... there are indeed reports that Disney did greatly cut back on the party tickets. According to Len Testa: "We’ve heard that Disney has reduced the number of MNSSHP tickets available from 25,000 to 20,000."
(see TP blog)
The problem is that you're assuming TPs original estimations were right. A prediction of a 3 which turned out to be a 7 is indeed drastic. But I'm guessing that 3 was wrong.
 

josh

Administrator
Staff member
A Saturday in October with a crowd level of 4 at Magic Kingdom and 3 at Epcot? http://blog.touringplans.com/2015/10/06/disney-world-crowd-calendar-report-september-27-to-october-3-2015/

That's an insane prediction. There is no precedent whatsoever for crowds being that low in the middle of Mickey's Party Season and the first Saturday of the Food/Wine Festival in October. Saturdays at Magic Kingdom have been terrible for years in September-December and I don't think a busy Saturday at Epcot during Food/Wine is particularly surprising. I don't know how anybody can look at that and not throw the whole thing out the window.
 

josh

Administrator
Staff member
And increasing wait times under FastPass+ isn't a new phenomenon at all. This is from March 2014, so 18+ months old: http://www.easywdw.com/uncategorized/how-fastpass-is-affecting-wait-times-at-disney-world-attractions/ We saw peak and median waits nearly double at a lot of historically secondary attractions more or less overnight. That "study" is talking about January/February, which are historically "less crowded" times for the most part, though you're obviously dealing with MLK weekend and President's Day/Mardi Gras.
 

abogdan

New member
This is all based on posted wait times, correct? Is there any reason to believe that Disney has changed something about the way they determine the posted wait times that could have resulted in across-the-board increases? Could Disney have either been understating the lines previously, and have now corrected, or were they being reported more accurately previously, but are now being overstated? I know this is just one person's observation, but when I was there the week before Labor Day I found the posted standby times to be overstated about 75% of the time, even during the middle of the day. Things like a 50 minute posted wait for Peter Pan in the middle of the afternoon only really taking 20 minutes, or a 35 minute posted time for Space Mountain when you could walk straight into the loading area before encountering a line.
 

Havoc315

Banned
The problem is that you're assuming TPs original estimations were right. A prediction of a 3 which turned out to be a 7 is indeed drastic. But I'm guessing that 3 was wrong.
Obviously it was wrong, the question is "why was it wrong." Have all those past first October Saturdays also been 7's, and TP just messed up?
Or was TP wrong, because the old models aren't applying anymore?

As I write this.. I'm checking....
10/4/14 (first Sat in October) was predicted to be a 5, and was actually a 4.
10/5/13 was predicted to be a 3, and was actually a 3.

So the prior 2 years, saw 3-4 on those days. Thus, it doesn't appear the prediction of a 3 was crazy.

In terms of MK:
Again, just fist Saturday in October:
2013: 4
2014: 5
2015: 8 (predicted to be a 4).

So very clearly, at a minimum, that first October Saturday didn't behave like the previous two first October Saturdays.

You see a similar behavior on other days -- Monday 10/19 -- MK was a 10, but predicted to be a 7. The corresponding Monday the previous 2 years, 7-8.

So very clearly, the current predictions were "wrong" -- but they are accurately based on the history. Something has changed, beyond the history. FP+ enough to account for it alone? Maybe.
FP+ plus a small growth in crowds? Maybe.
FP+ plus an October surge of new fall breaks? Maybe.

Lots of maybes.
 

Havoc315

Banned
A Saturday in October with a crowd level of 4 at Magic Kingdom and 3 at Epcot? http://blog.touringplans.com/2015/10/06/disney-world-crowd-calendar-report-september-27-to-october-3-2015/

That's an insane prediction. There is no precedent whatsoever for crowds being that low in the middle of Mickey's Party Season and the first Saturday of the Food/Wine Festival in October. Saturdays at Magic Kingdom have been terrible for years in September-December and I don't think a busy Saturday at Epcot during Food/Wine is particularly surprising. I don't know how anybody can look at that and not throw the whole thing out the window.
Unless TP is mis-reporting their own data.... The first Sat October 2013 and October 2014 were pretty light in Magic Kingdom.
 

cdmurphy727

New member
Obviously it was wrong, the question is "why was it wrong." Have all those past first October Saturdays also been 7's, and TP just messed up?
Or was TP wrong, because the old models aren't applying anymore?

As I write this.. I'm checking....
10/4/14 (first Sat in October) was predicted to be a 5, and was actually a 4.
10/5/13 was predicted to be a 3, and was actually a 3.

So the prior 2 years, saw 3-4 on those days. Thus, it doesn't appear the prediction of a 3 was crazy.

In terms of MK:
Again, just fist Saturday in October:
2013: 4
2014: 5
2015: 8 (predicted to be a 4).

So very clearly, at a minimum, that first October Saturday didn't behave like the previous two first October Saturdays.

You see a similar behavior on other days -- Monday 10/19 -- MK was a 10, but predicted to be a 7. The corresponding Monday the previous 2 years, 7-8.

So very clearly, the current predictions were "wrong" -- but they are accurately based on the history. Something has changed, beyond the history. FP+ enough to account for it alone? Maybe.
FP+ plus a small growth in crowds? Maybe.
FP+ plus an October surge of new fall breaks? Maybe.

Lots of maybes.
As I posted above - the EMH schedule changed this year. Making Monday's and Wednesday's at MK in particular more crowded than previous years. The other thing that changed this year were the MNSSHPs. In previous years the parties started early in September and were spread out over 2 months. This year the parties didn't start until mid-September and there are more parties each week. Making MK non-party days much more crowded than in years past.

Josh has explained these two changes multiple times and how they would affect the "crowdedness" of MK on Sat, Mon, Wed throughout the party season. It isn't enough to estimate the crowd based on previous years. You have to also consider the changes in operating schedules that have taken place this fall.

Again, I'm not sharp enough to understand all there is to this discussion, but from what I can tell, it isn't so much that crowds have "suddenly increased" so much as TPs is basing their original predictions on old data. It just doesn't work that way.
 

josh

Administrator
Staff member
Here's the 2015 October crowd calendar:



First Saturday is a "7" with MK least recommended.

Here's the 2014 October crowd calendar:



First Saturday is a "7" with MK least recommended.

Here's the 2013 October Crowd Calendar:



First Saturday is a "7" with MK least recommended.

Here's the 2012 October Crowd Calendar:



First Saturday is an "8" with MK least recommended.

Here's the 2011 October Crowd Calendar:



First Saturday is a "6" with MK least recommended.

Here's the 2010 October Crowd Calendar:



First Saturday is a "5" with MK second to last recommended.

So I'm not sure what to tell you. Has easywdw been wrong for the last five years and is now just getting lucky that Saturdays at Magic Kingdom in October are "crowded" or is it more likely that this has been the way things have been for years now? I think it's relatively likely that if Magic Kingdom was actually a "3" on Saturdays in October that I probably would have changed my tune some number of years ago. But I haven't and here we are.

I don't really talk negatively about TouringPlans anymore so I don't have a lot of recent comparisons between the sites' predictions. And to be perfectly honest, I don't even know what TouringPlans numbers mean anymore and they're about to change them all again. This post is really the last one and it's about a year old: http://www.easywdw.com/uncategorized/thanksgiving-week-disney-world-wait-times-and-a-touringplans-takedown/.
 

bnoble

he's right
the question is "why was it wrong."
My answer: because sometimes TP is just wrong. This is not a new phenomenon. They've had one or two howlers a year for as long as I can remember, and I've personally experienced some of them. For example, I was in Epcot on a TP-3 day that later was revised to a 7, and this was well before the FP+ business. I'm not sure why their algorithms mis-predict sometimes, but it is clear that they do.
 

agentp

New member
The disclaimer in the 2010 calendar made me LOL. I think Josh you've improved on your ranking of 3,982!
 

Havoc315

Banned
Here's the 2015 October crowd calendar:



First Saturday is a "7" with MK least recommended.

Here's the 2014 October crowd calendar:



First Saturday is a "7" with MK least recommended.

Here's the 2013 October Crowd Calendar:



First Saturday is a "7" with MK least recommended.

Here's the 2012 October Crowd Calendar:



First Saturday is an "8" with MK least recommended.

Here's the 2011 October Crowd Calendar:



First Saturday is a "6" with MK least recommended.

Here's the 2010 October Crowd Calendar:



First Saturday is a "5" with MK second to last recommended.

So I'm not sure what to tell you. Has easywdw been wrong for the last five years and is now just getting lucky that Saturdays at Magic Kingdom in October are "crowded" or is it more likely that this has been the way things have been for years now? I think it's relatively likely that if Magic Kingdom was actually a "3" on Saturdays in October that I probably would have changed my tune some number of years ago. But I haven't and here we are.

I don't really talk negatively about TouringPlans anymore so I don't have a lot of recent comparisons between the sites' predictions. And to be perfectly honest, I don't even know what TouringPlans numbers mean anymore and they're about to change them all again. This post is really the last one and it's about a year old: http://www.easywdw.com/uncategorized/thanksgiving-week-disney-world-wait-times-and-a-touringplans-takedown/.
I have no clue. Clearly, under your analysis, which I'm sure is genuine, there has indeed been fair consistency. I'm not sure what is going in to your measurement.

It's also clear, that under TP's analysis, which I believe measures "crowds" in terms of wait-times, there has been jump in those wait-times. And I think it's reasonable to believe in 2013 and 2014, they reported the correct historical data -- at least correct for their system.

It is indeed possible that the exact same day, with the actual hard numbers, could qualify as a "7" under the easyWdw model and a "3" under the TP model.

I'm a long time reader and user of both TP and EasyWdW. I know there is sometimes a rivalry, but I think Josh and Len both do a fantastic job.

In the end, I think we will get greater clarity in the coming weeks and months.

Here is my personal suspicion:

FP+... as it grows in adoption, has an ever growing affect on the wait times. On attractions that did not previously have FP, you are therefore seeing an ever more significant increase in wait times. (Instead of everyone having a 15 minute standby wait for Dumbo, now 70-80% walk right on with FPs, and 20-30% wait much longer). As those "secondary waits" get longer, the affect bleeds into the primary attractions. (If there is a 30 minute standby wait for Small World, and a 30 minute standby wait for Splash Mountain... hmmm, which standby line would I rather get on.. becomes almost a bidding war.... Splash Mountain is "worth" 20 minutes more than a secondary attraction, etc).

I think this is the primary cause of the increased waits. But then I also think, SOMETHING caused this affect to be even more exaggerated recently. It could be a simple surge in attendance. It could be some monkeying with the FP formula that accidentally made things worse. It could be some staffing issues. Or maybe it just is the new normal, the cumulative effect of FP adoption.
 

3dadknight

New member
It could be that there was no "recent" surge and the original premise is simply wrong. As I mentioned before, a knee jerk reaction to one's own big mistake is surprise. So, defensively, one may describe things as "sudden" or "unexpected" which is more likely because if it was expected, the prediction would have been different.
 

Havoc315

Banned
It could be that there was no "recent" surge and the original premise is simply wrong. As I mentioned before, a knee jerk reaction to one's own big mistake is surprise. So, defensively, one may describe things as "sudden" or "unexpected" which is more likely because if it was expected, the prediction would have been different.
I don't think there had ever been a MK "10" in October, in the recent era, until this year. The failure to predict a "10" wasn't a mere mistake that should have been obvious from the data. There is something different afoot. How different... whether its just a fluke... the cause, these are all valid questions.
 

3dadknight

New member
I don't think there had ever been a MK "10" in October, in the recent era, until this year. The failure to predict a "10" wasn't a mere mistake that should have been obvious from the data. There is something different afoot. How different... whether its just a fluke... the cause, these are all valid questions.
On TP's scale of 1-10, TP dtermined that MK was a 10 on October 7, 2015. By calling it a 10 they are telling me that they considered MK to be as crowded as NYE of any year - your pick- (unquestionably the most crowded day of the year). That is utterly ridiculous. I have been to MK on NYE. NYE is familiar to me. October 7, 2015 was no NYE.
 

josh

Administrator
Staff member
Here's an amusing thread from the last time Touring Plans changed all their numbers back in May: http://forum.touringplans.com/t/crowd-jump/13387/15

Hazelton says: The difference between a 7 and 9 is about 5 to 10 minutes for the average wait time, not as much as you think. There is a big difference between a Christmas '10' and a summer '10'.

So apparently a "10" isn't always a "10." And if you look at their crowd levels: http://touringplans.com/magic-kingdom/crowd-levels#

The range is huge. Look at Haunted Mansion. If the peak is 34 minutes, it could be a crowd level 2, 3, 4, or 5. Look at the range for Space Mountain crowd level 3. It's 40 minutes. A 64 minute wait at Space can apparently be a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7. Pick your favorite number. I'm not sure if that chart is current, but it certainly was at some point. So when you see Touring Plans say Magic Kingdom was "actually a 4" when it was "predicted to be a 3," who knows what that even means if the spread is that much?
 

3dadknight

New member
Here's an amusing thread from the last time Touring Plans changed all their numbers back in May: http://forum.touringplans.com/t/crowd-jump/13387/15

Hazelton says: The difference between a 7 and 9 is about 5 to 10 minutes for the average wait time, not as much as you think. There is a big difference between a Christmas '10' and a summer '10'.

So apparently a "10" isn't always a "10." And if you look at their crowd levels: http://touringplans.com/magic-kingdom/crowd-levels#

The range is huge. Look at Haunted Mansion. If the peak is 34 minutes, it could be a crowd level 2, 3, 4, or 5. Look at the range for Space Mountain crowd level 3. It's 40 minutes. A 64 minute wait at Space can apparently be a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7. Pick your favorite number. I'm not sure if that chart is current, but it certainly was at some point. So when you see Touring Plans say Magic Kingdom was "actually a 4" when it was "predicted to be a 3," who knows what that even means if the spread is that much?
My favorite comment from that thread - "Why not just make it go to 11?"
 

josh

Administrator
Staff member
Okay (probably) last chart.

What I've done is taken the expected wait times from the Magic Kingdom cheat sheet Mickey's Party chart here: http://www.easywdw.com/category/cheat-sheets/

And then compared them to the wait times from the day I just posted about, Tuesday 10/20. That post is here: http://www.easywdw.com/uncategorized/hub-construction-concludes-pirates-of-the-caribbean-reopens-pecos-bill-fajitas-disappoint-dragon-sipper-cup-leaks-magic-kingdom-102015/

In white are the posted wait times from 10/20. In green are the cheat sheet waits:


Okay.

Astro Orbiter: Cheat sheet wait times are higher. It's not a FP+ attraction, so ratios/capacity/etc. wouldn't come into play. Seeing 10-minute waits there is indicative of low crowds, as you would expect on a Tuesday Mickey's Party in late October. It might be interesting to look at the few attractions that don't offer FastPass+ to see if those waits have risen significantly, since we are supposedly suffering from much heavier crowds now.

Big Thunder: The average is within two minutes, which is pretty good. The wait doesn't initially take off as fast as expected at 10, though by 11am the actual posted is higher. The rest of the times track pretty closely and it's more or less what you would expect.

Buzz: Cheat sheet waits peak higher at 40-minutes. These are some of the lowest waits of the year at Buzz. In the post you may remember me mentioning that it was a straight shot into the building, which you almost never see anymore.

Dumbo: Cheat sheet waits are higher again.

Enchanted Tales: Average is within a minute of expected which is good, but waits are sort of all over the place here. 70 minutes at one point and then 20 minutes the next.

Haunted Mansion: Another pretty good one here. Within two minutes. Because it's Halloween, you actually see waits go up as Party time nears. People want to ride.

it's a small world: Actual posted waits are again lower than expected.



Jungle Cruise: Average is within a minute again and tracks pretty closely with the exception of 11am.

Mad Tea Party: One of the few where actual posted waits were higher than expected. Hopefully you can forgive the website as we were expecting 6.8 and got 8.7.

Anna/Elsa: Way off with the cheat sheet times much higher.

Ariel: Average within two minutes and nothing unexpected.

Cinderella: Way off thanks mostly to the 100-minute posted wait at 6pm.

Mickey: I guess I'll make an excuse and say these wait times were last updated in April, so they don't actually take into account any of the changes we've seen over the last six months. Some meet and greets, like Mickey, have seen some large increases in wait times.

Monsters Inc. NAILED IT!



Peter Pan's Flight: This is a good example of how FastPass+ pushes up waits soon after park open. 80 minutes by 10am is rough and goes back to maximum FP+ distribution even given lower crowds. Peter Pan's Flight FP+ is completely booked for six of the next ten days, which means the maximum number of people possible are going to be returning with FP+ in every possible return window, including 9am-10am. But nonetheless, the cheat sheet notes peak waits of 70 minutes and the actual peak was 80, so what you see shouldn't be all that surprising.

Pirates: Over two hours of downtime pushes up waits. You've got a similar number of FP+ returners returning in a smaller window.

Prince Charming: High five!

Mine Train:
Some surprisingly low posted waits in the afternoon. You may remember from the post me commenting that the 40-minute wait was too short.

Space: Pretty good. Cheat sheet times in the afternoon are higher.

Splash: We're kind of in between "hot" and "cold" where you see 10 minute waits continue all the way through 11:15am. People don't like to ride until it's hot out.

Stitch: WAIT TIMES WERE DOUBLE WHAT WAS EXPECTED THE CROWD CALENDAR UNDERESTIMATED WAITS BY HALF! (no refunds)



Barnstormer: Average is within a minute. Some downtime pushed up waits toward the end of the night.

Magic Carpets: Pretty good.

Winnie the Pooh:
An hour of downtime pushes up waits.

Speedway: Actual posted waits are considerably shorter than expected.

Mermaid ride:
Originally, they didn't post waits under 60 minutes here. Then it was 40. Then 30. Then 20. And now they finally figured out how to post a 10-minute wait. Cheat sheet times probably need to be reduced as the "newness" seems to have worn off.

So overall, on the recommended Party day here things in October are pretty much exactly what you should be expecting based on the wait times provided by the website.

I'll do Hollywood Studios with the Hollywood Studios post next. And perhaps take a look at AK and Epcot depending on how the length of the post is looking.
 
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