Interesting comments on recent increase in wait times at park

NYHeel

Member
Not sure if anybody caught the Touring Plans series: http://blog.touringplans.com/2015/11/01/whats-up-with-wait-times-at-disneys-animal-kingdom/

One thing that stands out as being goofy right off the bat is the Expedition Everest single rider wait. Has anybody really waited 20+ minutes in single rider? Ever? I was under the impression that there were typically 10-12 people in line.
I was in Epcot on Monday 10/26. At about 4:00 or so, Test Track showed a 60 minute standby wait and a 30 minute singles standby wait. I was surprised at the long posted wait for singles but figured it wouldn't take so long. My wife and I waited and it too a little under 20 minutes to get on.

TP also showed a longer than normal singles rider wait time for Test Track and Rock n roller coaster. I think Disney is just being more conservative with their singles line wait times, but perhaps more people are reading the recommendations about using the singles lines.
 

josh

Administrator
Staff member
Yeah that's why I'm talking about Expedition Everest. You can very easily see how long the line is there, unlike Rock n Roller Coaster when you really have no idea and even with Test Track, you have to physically get in and walk the line to see how long it is. As far as I know, Disney doesn't push single rider wait times to the app, so you'd be relying on what I'm guessing is just a handful of single rider posted waits over the course of any given week. That "data" would be heavily biased depending on when people are most likely to be at the attraction.
 

NYHeel

Member
Yeah that's why I'm talking about Expedition Everest. You can very easily see how long the line is there, unlike Rock n Roller Coaster when you really have no idea and even with Test Track, you have to physically get in and walk the line to see how long it is. As far as I know, Disney doesn't push single rider wait times to the app, so you'd be relying on what I'm guessing is just a handful of single rider posted waits over the course of any given week. That "data" would be heavily biased depending on when people are most likely to be at the attraction.
Agreed. But given the very small number of people in the single rider lines I don't think it had very much of any impact on their analysis. For me, the magic kingdom analysis is the big one. That park has had the largest wait time increases recently, at least ones that aren't easily explained like at HS.
 

Anne

Well-known member
I saw it and am wondering what the point of it is. They keep pointing to charts to show trends but then say there are no trends. In the Epcot portion, they seem to conclude that 60% of the increase in wait times is due to maelstrom closing. The average increase for Soarin from 2014 to 2015 is 5 minutes. They apparently can't figure out what's causing the other 2 minutes of extra wait time. Basically, their data shows that between 10:00 and 5:00 on a select group of attractions, you will wait an additional 2-4 minutes per attraction on average. Considering I'm using FPs at that time or am not even in the park, it really doesn't matter to me. The 2-4 minute increase apparently causes them to see CL 10's when they predicted CL 3's. :)
This.
There is no real meaning to the analysis. It's not helpful. Especially looking at averages. Looking at median and peak (dropping outliers for down time etc) wait times would provide more useful information.

TP also had a group restaurant review a while back where they used a 5 point scale. Another pointless numbers game that doesn't provide much guidance to the reader. Everything was a 3 or 4 with little to differentiate. Garbage in garbage out.

For a site that supposedly has professional statisticians they seem to miss the point a lot of the time.
 

3dadknight

Well-known member
This.
There is no real meaning to the analysis. It's not helpful. Especially looking at averages. Looking at median and peak (dropping outliers for down time etc) wait times would provide more useful information.

TP also had a group restaurant review a while back where they used a 5 point scale. Another pointless numbers game that doesn't provide much guidance to the reader. Everything was a 3 or 4 with little to differentiate. Garbage in garbage out.

For a site that supposedly has professional statisticians they seem to miss the point a lot of the time.
It goes back to what stevemilz said earlier in this thread about it all being more of an art than a science.
 

lawgman

New member
I don’t get their assessment about Maelstrom. People rode it only after 11am and usually as part of their touring of world showcase. If you take the ride away, the people will just move on to the next pavilion. There can’t possibly be a correlation between Maelstrom and the higher wait times for Soarin in the first hour the park is open.
 

Anne

Well-known member
It goes back to what stevemilz said earlier in this thread about it all being more of an art than a science.
Agreed. But they also can't even seem to get the "science" part right. Scientists are still supposed to be able to look at the data and ask relevant questions. I don't care what the answer is (correct or incorrect) if the initial question isn't relevant.
 

3dadknight

Well-known member
I don’t get their assessment about Maelstrom. People rode it only after 11am and usually as part of their touring of world showcase. If you take the ride away, the people will just move on to the next pavilion. There can’t possibly be a correlation between Maelstrom and the higher wait times for Soarin in the first hour the park is open.
Yep. Also, they seem to have forgotten the 5-6 hour waits for A&E at Epcot through April of 2014. They must have assumed that that line was for Maelstrom. :)
 

jmannwv

New member
Has anybody really waited 20+ minutes in single rider? Ever? I was under the impression that there were typically 10-12 people in line.
At the end of April, I waited between 15-20 minutes in the single rider line at EE in the afternoon. Though I was the only one in line older than 17 - so I may have just hit it at a bad time right after a large group of kids.
 
Not sure if anybody caught the Touring Plans series: http://blog.touringplans.com/2015/11/01/whats-up-with-wait-times-at-disneys-animal-kingdom/

One thing that stands out as being goofy right off the bat is the Expedition Everest single rider wait. Has anybody really waited 20+ minutes in single rider? Ever? I was under the impression that there were typically 10-12 people in line.
I know that 2 of my kids waited about 25 minutes in the EE single-rider line one morning in June 2013. My husband and I were standing in the gift shop waiting for them -- thinking it would take 10 minutes. We noticed that the trains were coming in with empty seats -- as if they weren't pulling anyone from the single-rider line. I went outside to see if I could see them in the line somewhere and at that point, they had actually closed the single rider line. The CM standing guard did let me walk into the line just to make visual contact with the kids. I went back to the gift shop and waited. I did notice that the trains were now coming into the unloading station completely full. It took another 15 minutes for the kids to get through the line. I do agree that most of the time, the wait in the single-rider line at EE has been more like 10 minutes.
 

jprice906

New member
Have they closed the loophole for throwaway rooms yet? If not, then maybe way more people are booking a throwaway room and sucking up all the available fast passes at their 60 day mark? Is it possible this could create a domino effect and cause standby waits to rise on all attractions?
 

BeckyW

New member
Have they closed the loophole for throwaway rooms yet? If not, then maybe way more people are booking a throwaway room and sucking up all the available fast passes at their 60 day mark? Is it possible this could create a domino effect and cause standby waits to rise on all attractions?
There is a finite number of FP+ available for each ride. So it doesn't matter if they're booked at 60 days, 30 days or the day of, it wouldn't change the length of the lines. Just maybe which guest is in those lines.
 

jprice906

New member
There is a finite number of FP+ available for each ride. So it doesn't matter if they're booked at 60 days, 30 days or the day of, it wouldn't change the length of the lines. Just maybe which guest is in those lines.
Good point - but if all the good FPs are already taken by onsite guests with long stays and guests booking throwaway rooms at the 60 day window then the remaining guests that come searching for FPs after that will only have non-priority FPs left to select from. Then when a FP that might otherwise go unused is used on a non-priority attraction that will increase the standby wait time for that attraction. So maybe there are longer waits because more people are booking throwaway rooms and more people are booking longer stays. I don't know. I guess like Josh said, there is a lot going on ...
 

josh

Administrator
Staff member
I know that 2 of my kids waited about 25 minutes in the EE single-rider line one morning in June 2013. My husband and I were standing in the gift shop waiting for them -- thinking it would take 10 minutes. We noticed that the trains were coming in with empty seats -- as if they weren't pulling anyone from the single-rider line. I went outside to see if I could see them in the line somewhere and at that point, they had actually closed the single rider line. The CM standing guard did let me walk into the line just to make visual contact with the kids. I went back to the gift shop and waited. I did notice that the trains were now coming into the unloading station completely full. It took another 15 minutes for the kids to get through the line. I do agree that most of the time, the wait in the single-rider line at EE has been more like 10 minutes.
Anything is possible as they say. I'd have to check the pictures, but I waited something like two minutes with 14 people ahead of me in line today around 1:30pm-ish if I remember correctly.
 

Anne

Well-known member
Wow, they can't even report the attendance increase correctly at TP. They had 2 posts today where they stated 15% increase in attendance. The second post was AFTER it was clearly pointed out in the comments section of the first post that the actual increase was 7%. This is such a basic concept how can they get it wrong?

I don't know why I care at this point, but somehow I continue to hope there will be useful information from TP and then am disappointed when they fail to grasp common sense concepts like one fiscal year has 52 weeks and the next 53 weeks.
 

Anne

Well-known member
Good point - but if all the good FPs are already taken by onsite guests with long stays and guests booking throwaway rooms at the 60 day window then the remaining guests that come searching for FPs after that will only have non-priority FPs left to select from. Then when a FP that might otherwise go unused is used on a non-priority attraction that will increase the standby wait time for that attraction. So maybe there are longer waits because more people are booking throwaway rooms and more people are booking longer stays. I don't know. I guess like Josh said, there is a lot going on ...
Josh has previously discussed the impact of greater fp utilization on wait times at secondary attractions. That greater utilization has nothing to do with WHEN the fp are made. As Becky said, the timing of when you make your fp (30 or 60 days) will impact who gets the priority fp, but not the total number booked. Once the priority are booked up people will opt for the remaining secondary attractions. If X people plan to go to MK and pre-book fp, then there will be 3X fp reserved for that day regardless of when those reservations are made.

Secondly, even if timing mattered, the vast majority of guests are not making throwaway reservations. It is a drop in the bucket and certainly wouldn't be enough to alter wait times.
 

tiggeranzalone

New member
I imagine more people end up throwing away FP than rooms. Some of the wait times at GMR and Pirates are killing me, though. Not to blame them for everything, but a tour group getting in front of you can flip a wait time pretty quickly.
 

MinnieUNC

New member
hi,...Speaking of TP, today a friend forwarded to me an email where TP just changed their crowd calendar for next week! (our trip is 11/15-11/21) Upping their predictions for resort-wide crowds, along with bigger crowds in MK, and HS...they've now got HS crowd-level 6 every day next week, previously 3's....even forecast-ed next Tuesday a 6; and HS closes at 4pm that day. Is this more TP craziness?, or should it be taken seriously? The last time I was in HS it was supposedly crowd levels 6-7....wait times were awful, and the whole park.. claustrophobic, too many people for such a small park! My husband and I left mid-day, leaving our kids to fight the fight. I swore I wouldn't go back to HS unless low crowds were forecasted. We'll be there when the park opens, and are going with Josh's predictions/recommendations, but this has us a little startled. Thanks.
 
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