mid-may crowd update?

[adrienne a]

I remember that touring plans updated their crowd calendar for like feb/march very late, from 2-3 to 9-10. (Sorry, my facts are not facts--just a vague memory.) They were right to do so, it seems, but people were shocked. I can't remember how "late" the announcement was made with the update. Like 2 weeks in advance?

I am wondering if I might expect a similar update for mid-May, and if so, when might that update be made? I still have the option (though window is closing) to reschedule for August, which was my other possible trip. Crowds might be just as bad in August (who knows) but at least it will be considerably less expensive. And, I expect that mid-August will be less crowded than mid-May no matter what.

Any thoughts about mid-May? Touring plans has my dates as moderate crowd levels, and I am quite happy with that. I have never been to Disney during peak crowds, and frankly, I have no interest in doing so. My dates are 5/12-5/23, so during GoTG previews, but before the actual opening, so maybe that helps.

I just keep waiting for the other shoe to drop. Disney has not yet announced any park hour extensions for those dates, so I guess if that happens, I will know it will be much more crowded than I expected.

I know this seems like a "crystal ball" question. But, I guess I am more asking about the "timing" of touring plans last update, and also, when I might expect any new park hours updates. Everyone here is much more on top of these things than I am. And of course crystal ball predictions are welcome too. Thanks!

 

[bnoble]

I would assume it’s busy until I’d heard differently. IIRC hour updates happen the Friday two weeks before the beginning of the week.

 

[adrienne a]

I would assume it’s busy until I’d heard differently. IIRC hour updates happen the Friday two weeks before the beginning of the week.

Thanks! Busy is one thing, 10 crowd level is another. Also what does IIRC stand for? I assume you are referring to the official park hour updates?

Now that I think about it, I assumed big crowd expectations would mean longer hours during our stay, and that might be doable (we are touring with a night owl.) Worst case scenario is, high crowds but Disney desides to go with shorter hours for a couple of weeks until GoTG opening.

Guess I will just have to wait and see.

 

[Grover's Bathtub]

Thanks! Busy is one thing, 10 crowd level is another. Also what does IIRC stand for?

IIRC = If I Recall Correctly

 

[Alcachofa]

I would go with @Dave Shute 's weekly crowd level estimates WAY before touring plans.

Of course, keeping in mind that this year everything is more crowded than it otherwise would be.

 

[adrienne a]

I would go with @Dave Shute 's weekly crowd level estimates WAY before touring plans.

Of course, keeping in mind that this year everything is more crowded than it otherwise would be.

Thanks! Also still showing "moderate" crowds for mid May at this point. I wonder if they will be updated, or are crowd calendars no longer relevant in this environment, even if they are posted? Again, just trying to look at the evidence available and make the best guess I can. Do we know if Dave Shute has been adjusting the calendar regularly this year?

 

[adrienne a]

Just got the update that Epcot is opening at 9 instead of 10am for our stay...and so it begins!

 

[3dadknight]

Do we know if Dave Shute has been adjusting the calendar regularly this year?

Dave’s “calendar” is based on logic and reasoning about when people are willing and able to travel to WDW rather than historical wait times that generally have no relevance to the present. Unless there is some major announcement of an event or new ride opening that would draw a significant number of people to the parks in the next couple of weeks, there is no need to update his recommendations. Your dates in mid-May are likely to remain moderate on Dave’s list of weeks.

 

[adrienne a]

Dave’s “calendar” is based on logic and reasoning about when people are willing and able to travel to WDW rather than historical wait times that generally have no relevance to the present. Unless there is some major announcement of an event or new ride opening that would draw a significant number of people to the parks in the next couple of weeks, there is no need to update his recommendations. Your dates in mid-May are likely to remain moderate on Dave’s list of weeks.

Thank you, very helpful.

 

[Anne]

I would go with @Dave Shute 's weekly crowd level estimates WAY before touring plans.

Of course, keeping in mind that this year everything is more crowded than it otherwise would be.

I'm late to the thread but wanted to second this. I always look at Dave's calendar when I want to know how busy a week is likely to be.

Touringplans just can't predict accurately what they say they are predicting. I don't even look at their crowd calendar anymore.

 

[adrienne a]

I'm late to the thread but wanted to second this. I always look at Dave's calendar when I want to know how busy a week is likely to be.

Touringplans just can't predict accurately what they say they are predicting. I don't even look at their crowd calendar anymore.

Not late and thanks! I definitely take TP with grain of salt, but since I knew they were doing updates, I figured it is at least something. Glad to use Dave’s!

Logically it is hard to imagine mid-May being as busy as spring break, but logic does not seem to be that helpful in these times.

 

[George]

The crowds in Dave’s calendars may change, but the weeks are pretty accurate, relative to each other.

 

[Dave Shute]

if I knew how to do a "blushing" emoji I would...

 

[adrienne a]

Hi Dave! Thanks for your hard work! I knew about your site years ago but lost track of it. Glad everyone reminded me!!

 

[adrienne a]

The crowds in Dave’s calendars may change, but the weeks are pretty accurate, relative to each other.

Thanks for summarizing succinctly what I have been trying to get at. Yes. Relative. That's it.

 

[LindaOwl1]

I have been tracking wait times and G+/ILL availability on MDE daily for a couple months now. I had a trip in April and a trip starting this Friday (5/13). This past week waits are down and availability is up from April. It was crowded in April but no problem doing everything using rope drop at all parks and G+ at MK and HS. I am hoping waits stay lower for the next 2 weeks.

 

[adrienne a]

I have been tracking wait times and G+/ILL availability on MDE daily for a couple months now. I had a trip in April and a trip starting this Friday (5/13). This past week waits are down and availability is up from April. It was crowded in April but no problem doing everything using rope drop at all parks and G+ at MK and HS. I am hoping waits stay lower for the next 2 weeks.

Thanks! I have started checking times also the last 3 days and was pleasantly surprised at what I was seeing. If we can stay this way for the next stretch pre-memorial day, I will be very happy!

Good luck with your trip!

 

[George]

This past week (1-7 May), the crowds were very manageable. We only purchased Genie+ once (HS) the entire week, and got everything done.

 

[adrienne a]

This past week (1-7 May), the crowds were very manageable. We only purchased Genie+ once (HS) the entire week, and got everything done.

Wow, you are back! Seems like you just left. Thanks for the update and hope you had an amazing time.