New WDW Annual Pass Sales Paused

bnoble

he's right
That's my guess as well, though I don't think they are trying to depress attendance so much as increase the per-cap gate.

I think of APers as the shock absorbers to demand. They are a loyal bunch and come back more often. But, they contribute less to the financial metrics of the park. That's not to say that they don't spend a lot in total. They do. But, the theme park industry measures revenue in part by a measure called "per-capita in-park spending". That is: take everything that the parks generate in revenue for each day, and divide it by the number of people who entered one or more of the parks that day.

So, an APer might spend 3 times as much as a day-ticket guest in the course of a year. But, if the APer attends 4 times as many days, the APer is "less valuable" than the day-ticket guest. And that's probably not just because of admission. An APer might not splurge as much on meals, merchandise, etc. as a day-guest because for the APer they've been-there-done-that. After all, how many different sets of Ears does one person need?

There are exceptions to that, of course. My sister in law, for example, never wears the same set of ears to a park twice. But, most people don't do that.

If I'm right about this (and look at my tagline...) then if the Parks think they might have to (or want to) turn people away, they'd rather those turned away be Passholders. For example, I'm fairly sure that's why Passholders (and Keyholders in Anaheim) have such a limited number of advance reservations they are able to make, so that they can't both hold a bunch of holidays in advance and still attend often in the meantime.

But, not selling new passes probably won't discourage anyone from coming in the next month and change, when the parks are already in high demand. What it does instead is prevents those people from being able to come back one or more times cheaply. They might not make a planned return trip in 2022, because they'd need to buy new, full-priced tickets. But if the Parks remain in high demand (and there's no reason to believe that's not going to be true) then that's not a big deal, because those folks would just be dragging down the per-caps.

Conversely, the Pixie Dust pass is more or less not blocked out only on days that always have significant Park Pass capacity. Those folks may as well come, because there's room. Fine, whatever. They won't be able to come later on most any day in high demand---no weekends, no President's Week, Spring Break, Thanksgiving, etc. etc. etc.
 

bnoble

he's right
As an aside: I haven't looked yet, but I'm guessing the DVC owners are apoplectic about this, as per usual.
 

Strangeite

Well-known member
The obsession over "per-capita in-park spending" reminds me of the obsession over RevPAR by the hotel industry.

RevPAR, or revenue per available room, is the most important metric individual hotels are evaluated by their flagship corporate overlords. A hotel owner can lose their flag if RevPAR falls too low, even if the hotel is still profitable. Whenever I am appraising a hotel, it always takes a while for managers/owners to get that while I care what their RevPAR is, it is not the financial data that I care about the most. "But but but my RevPAR is up 3.2% over the last quarter!"
 

bnoble

he's right
And that makes sense. Presumably, an appraisal is an attempt to figure out what the whole thing is worth independently of how it is managed. But how it is managed makes a big difference between doing just okay and printing money.

In the theme park example, per-cap makes possibly even more sense than RevPAR. At some point, every extra guest negatively impacts the experience of every other guest. There's a point at which a guest doesn't add enough to be worth it even if, in the moment, that guest is "profitable". That's really what's behind more or less all of the pricing decisions Disney has been making lately.
 

crumjack

Active member
I’m sure it’s more of what everyone here has suggested but it’s also a bit of marketing in disguise. “I didn’t want it until you told me I couldn’t have it!”

Not me but I’m guessing there are some people who had buying an AP on the back burner that will cough up the cash right away when they go back on sale.
 

bnoble

he's right
I admit I'm kicking myself for not getting one for my upcoming March trip, but it wasn't a have-to-have thing; it was within a few dollars either way because there were only two trips planned in the AP year.
 

George

wishes he had a pink frolicing llama under his tag
I have an Orlando business trip in early-February and will be staying (on my DVC points) at RR, then a week-long pleasure trip at PVB at the beginning of May. I’d been pushing back an unused seven-day Hopper for almost a year and a half now, and recently upgraded to the DVC AP since I had two trips (the first of which will not be park-heavy), so now I’m toying with the idea of saving the AP for my May trip and just buying a three- or four-day pass for February. But then again I'm so used to cancelling these trips that I probably don’t have to decide for a couple more months.
 

pixarprincess

Well-known member
I admit I'm kicking myself for not getting one for my upcoming March trip, but it wasn't a have-to-have thing; it was within a few dollars either way because there were only two trips planned in the AP year.
This is where I am at. We are going in a few weeks and now toying with a trip in 22 that would have made upgrading worthwhile. Now we likely wont be able to... may sway us to go elsewhere instead depending on the math.
 

Art Vandelay

that's a shame
Luck and timing. DD just a few days ago asked if we could go for NYE. Not a chance after I looked at resort availability and flight prices. But I did find $50 RT on Frontier in mid-January, so we're doing a silly fly down early Saturday, fly home early Sunday trip, mostly using miles/points. But I did buy DD's AP because of the January trip (along with May and August trips, the AP makes sense).
 

Strangeite

Well-known member
Presumably, an appraisal is an attempt to figure out what the whole thing is worth independently of how it is managed. But how it is managed makes a big difference between doing just okay and printing money.
That is mostly correct. For real estate there are three approaches to establishing value; the income approach, the sales comparison approach, and the cost approach. In theory, you are supposed to consider all three every time you are looking at a property but in practice, which approach is most important is determined by why the appraisal is needed.

Unsurprisingly, banks using a property as a collateral for a loan care most about sales comparison and cost. Estates establishing basis at the time of death care most about income and sales. Insurance cares mostly about cost, etc.

The income approach is very important for hotels and how it's managed plays a big role when calculating the income capitalization rate.
 

Art Vandelay

that's a shame
the theme park industry measures revenue in part by a measure called "per-capita in-park spending". That is: take everything that the parks generate in revenue for each day, and divide it by the number of people who entered one or more of the parks that day.

It sounds like I'm the worst of the worst. Passholder and DVC member, so they're not getting hotel $ from me. And I don't buy ears.
 

George

wishes he had a pink frolicing llama under his tag
This is where I am at. We are going in a few weeks and now toying with a trip in 22 that would have made upgrading worthwhile. Now we likely wont be able to... may sway us to go elsewhere instead depending on the math.
It was reported on DisneyTouristBlog that CMs at the DS Guest Services building have a good amount of discretion with granting APs to those who ask. FWIW, I usually have good luck with getting what I ask for when I’m nice to them, which most of the time requires Strassburg-level sense memory acting technique on my part.
 

pixarprincess

Well-known member
It was reported on DisneyTouristBlog that CMs at the DS Guest Services building have a good amount of discretion with granting APs to those who ask. FWIW, I usually have good luck with getting what I ask for when I’m nice to them, which most of the time requires Strassburg-level sense memory acting technique on my part.
good to know. we have a resort day and are at saratoga. If we decide it is worth it we will walk over and plead our case.
 

Anne

Well-known member
This was a surprise. I have my AP but was planning to upgrade kids' old unused non-expiring tickets (we stocked up on tickets before they discontinued that ticket type) to APs. One aged out and the other will age out before he can use his 2nd NE ticket (due to unexpected 2 years away from Disney). They are 3rd party tickets which have to be in person, correct?

We had APs that expired during the shut down and I was able to get my new AP even when new sales were suspended, At the time they asked if the other family members wanted to renew and I wasn't sure and was told they still had the option but not sure if that exemption will still apply this far out?
 

DopeyRunr

the jeweled acrobats only perform amazing stunts f
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